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  #76  
Old 10-02-2020, 08:15 AM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

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I don't think Pence has a better chance. He's got the charisma of a 2 by 4.
Agreed. The people who like Trump like him because he's a blowhard, a bully, and he freaks out the liberals. Pence is boring as dirt and just can't do what Trump does.
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  #77  
Old 10-03-2020, 12:22 AM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

I'm not sure Pence would even be the GOP nominee if the orange one kicks it before the election. That would depend on Republican party bylaws, not the Constitution's succession rules. Maybe they say that the running mate gets the nom, but I'm too lazy to look it up. I wouldn't be surprised if they picked some other dipshit, like Ted (Zodiac Killer) Cruz, and Pence "voluntarily" bowed out to "spend more time with his family." :airquote:
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  #78  
Old 10-03-2020, 02:39 PM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

I looked this up, and Reuters, who probably know what's what, say that Trump must remain on the ballot.

Explainer: What happens to the U.S. presidential election if a candidate dies or becomes incapacitated? | Reuters

From the linkThe U.S. Constitution gives Congress the power to determine the election date [but] The Democratic-controlled House of Representatives would almost certainly object to delaying the election, even if the Republican-controlled Senate voted to do so. [...]

Unless Congress delays the election, voters would still choose between the Republican Trump and Democrat Joe Biden even if one died before Nov. 3. [...]

The winner must receive at least 270 of the 538 total Electoral College votes ... but more than half of the states bind electors to cast their votes for the winner [of the stateís popular vote]. [...]

The Constitutionís 20th Amendment says the vice president-elect becomes president if the president-elect dies before Inauguration Day. But itís an open legal question whether a candidate formally becomes the ďpresident-electĒ after winning the Electoral College vote, or only after Congress certifies the count. If Congress rejected votes for a deceased candidate and therefore found no one had won a majority, it is up to the House of Representatives to pick the next president, choosing from among the top three electoral vote-getters. [...]

Republicans currently hold the advantage in a contingent election, as they control 26 of 50 state delegations ... the makeup of the next Congress is still unknown.
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  #79  
Old 10-03-2020, 06:40 PM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

Yes, it's too late to change the ballots, so the change would occur when the Electoral College votes. If the GOP somehow won, they would vote for someone else since Trump is dead, and presumably, the easiest choice to make would be Pence since he was actually elected. Selecting Ted Cruz or anyone else would be controversial, even given recent events.

Amusingly, I could see that scenario being a headache for Pence, given that Trump's electors are going to be full MAGA crazies who might vote for Trump even though he's dead, throwing the election to Congress. He'd probably still be elected in that scenario, but it would be amusing. As amusing as anything could be given the prospect of four more years of this GOP (even if under Pence which is not as scary as four more years of Trump).

Regarding Pence's election chances, it might be worth pointing out that Trump's White House has now been the setting of a superspreader event. Mike Pence was in charge of the Coronavirus Task Force. It's not a big jump from "you were in charge of addressing the pandemic" to "you let it infect and/or kill multiple members of your party, including the president". I don't think the particular circumstances of Pence ascending would be helpful to him (his best chances would've been associated with an assassination, particularly by a left-winger, followed by Trump dying of a normal health issue like a heart attack).
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  #80  
Old 10-17-2020, 11:06 PM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

So I posted this before, but here's updated to account for the Q3 fundraising numbers, which were massive for many Democrats, and the current standings in the polls. While it's getting a bit late in the game, it could still be helpful to donate with three weeks left to go - most of that money will go to ad buys. In the third quarter, Democratic Senate candidates raised almost $400 million, while Republican ones raised only $160 million. However, due to Citizens United, outside groups can spend heavily to help Republicans, and that likely brings them closer to parity.

That's also true in races where the Democrat has a huge fundraising advantage - Bollier might have 4x as much money as the Republican, but the Republican has a lot of outside help.
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Should go without saying but I'll say it: if you are reading this and are American open your fucking wallet up for the Dems right now.
But don't give your money to Amy McGrath, however satisfying it is to imagine her beating McConnell.
[...]
Using 538's Senate model and "voter power index" along with some fundraising information, I'd say the best races to give to are (in order-ish):
McGrath now has over $80 million, because people don't listen to me.

Although I would modify my prior statements: it's probably more important that she's far behind than that she has a ton of money already. The ratio of money between the candidates probably also matters more than the overall amount.

Also, apparently there are some finicky FCC things to consider:

Currently, this would push Jon Ossoff and Gary Peters higher on the list. Given that Warnock's also in Georgia, it would affect him as well, although the almost assured runoff changes the urgency. Basically, the DSCC and others can spend money to help Gideon or Cunningham and others more effectively than they can help Peters or Ossoff.

Anyhow, here's the revised list:
  • AK: Al Gross
    This race isn't the tightest, but it's a small, cheap state. The amount of money in the race isn't as much as in some places, and while the Democratic funding surge since RBG's death has put him in the lead on funding, he isn't absolutely dominating like some candidates. Which moves him into first place.
  • MT: Steve Bullock
    Montana is slightly larger than Alaska, and Bullock's fundraising has been stronger than Gross's, so he has a bigger funding lead. But it's still almost the top value for your money.
  • MI: Gary Peters
    Unfortunately, this race is more competitive than we'd like for a D incumbent. Peters leads in the polls, but his opponent has outraised him in most quarters, and kept it at near parity through Q3... and has more cash on hand right now. But since Biden is polling more strongly, maybe Biden's coattails will pull him up a bit.
  • GA: Jon Ossoff
    Georgia has a chance of going blue, but unlike Biden, Ossoff needs 50%+1 to win it. His fundraising is much improved since Q2.
  • ME: Sara Gideon
    Gideon is absolutely thrashing Collins in fundraising, but she hasn't run away with the race yet. And Maine is still small.
  • IA: Theresa Greenfield
    Greenfield crushed Ernst in fundraising in Q3, turning the tables, but this race is very close.
  • KS: Barbara Bollier
    Bollier's fundraising advantage has remained. It's not as close, but Bollier has a good shot and it's still a pretty small state.
  • MS: Mike Espy
    Again a small state. And again the Dem took the fundraising advantage in Q3 (almost entirely in the final two weeks after RBG's death). Still a bit of a longshot, but money goes far in a small, cheap state.
  • AZ: Mark Kelly
    Martha McSally looks done, and Kelly has more money than every Senate candidate except McGrath and Harrison. But his fundraising domination isn't as large as say, Bollier's.
  • CO: John Hickenlooper
    Cory Gardner looks done, but 538 still gives him a 20% shot. And while Hickenlooper's fundraising has improved since Q2, CO is still not that big.
  • NC: Cal Cunningham
    This is a very competitive race, and Cunningham's (consensual) extramarital affair has possibly stopped his momentum (although his lead hasn't shrunk). It is kinda harder for Tillis to make hay out of it when he endorses the pornstar-fucking adulterer and non-consensual pussygrabber. He's gotten good fundraising numbers. Seeing as I just voted for this guy, I'd also like to see him win.
  • SC: Jaime Harrison
    This appears to be a real race, but Graham is still favored. Harrison already raised over $80m, although Graham has more money than any other Republican. I still admit there's a satisfaction factor that makes taking down Graham extra appealing though.
  • NM: Ben Ray Lujan
    This is an open seat, so it may be wise to take it less for granted. NM is also a small state and Lujan isn't >$10m like so many on this list.
  • GA-special: Raphael Warnock
    Our prospects have hugely improved in this race since the first one, moving from Likely R to tossup on 538. Democrats have consolidated (RIP to the younger Lieberman's campaign) and the two main Republicans have been competing to be more batshit crazy conservative, which has resulted in Warnock having healthy leads in the few polls with hypothetical runoffs. His funding has also improved a lot, although Loeffler still has more money and can self-fund. As mentioned above, other races need money before November, and Warnock very likely will be campaigning until January. This race will be crazy after November though, if it's as competitive as it looks to be.
  • AL: Doug Jones
    Alabama's not a big state, but Jones has a 4:1 fundraising advantage over Tuberville. But he's down in the polls, and while they released an internal this week with Jones in the lead, he's not a good position in the average. But he's been counted out before...
  • MN: Tina Smith
    Incumbent with a significant fundraising advantage, but MN isn't in the bag.
  • TX: M.J. Hegar
    Texas is a very expensive state to run in because it's so big, and Hegar isn't super close, but it's a possibility, particularly if Biden's coattails can improve her standing. Her fundraising has improved, and her polls have slightly improved as well. But she's still a longshot. But the fundamental problem of investing much in this race is that your dollar doesn't go far in Texas relative to smaller states. One point in her favor is that TX has a lot going on downballot, including the possibility that the GOP's gerrymander (which was based on the suburbs being reliably GOP) may backfire, which means Democrats flipping the TX House even while Trump wins the state is a very real possibility. But if you're concerned about that, I'd suggest donating to local TX candidates or the TX Democratic party.
  • NH: Jeanne Shaheen
    Same as Smith... except Shaheen has better polls and more money. But NH is also a very small state, otherwise she wouldn't even be on the list.
  • LA: Adrian Perkins
    He has raised a non-trivial amount of money (over $1m, better than the no-hopers in Idaho, WY, SD, etc.) but tbh for right now, he only needs to keep Cassidy below 50%, since there's no way he can win outright in November. Even then, it's a longshot.
If you've maxed out to all of the above, well... then give to your local Dems, House candidates and/or Biden... THEN maybe give to McGrath.
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  #81  
Old 10-18-2020, 12:46 AM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

I gave to Cal Cunningham (whom I still back despite his pathetically weak text game) and Jaime Harrison to help him troll Lady G with pro-Bledsoe ads. I maxed out to Biden in September, which is the first time I have ever maxed out to a candidate. It has led to some interesting things that I did not know happened. Like I got a call from the Biden Victory Fund, which is the joint Biden-DNC fundraising body, and the guy led with asking for $5k (but matching donations up to $1 million!) and I was like :lolwut: dude I am out of money.
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  #82  
Old 10-18-2020, 01:14 AM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

Please don't spend any money on the Colorado U.S. Senate race. Hickenlooper's campaign is loaded, and the NRSC is spending next to nothing trying to get Gardner reelected. The clowns running Hick's campaign are utterly bereft of competence, yet the clowns running Gardner's campaign are somehow measurably worse.
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  #83  
Old 10-18-2020, 01:17 AM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

Spend Hickenlooper dollars on Ben Lujan, maybe. That guy's great.
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  #84  
Old 10-18-2020, 02:55 AM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

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Going on personal reactions, I don't really respond that well to KH in attack dog mode. She needs to spend at least equal time on defining what she's for.
While she definitely does need to define her definition, I wonder it attack mode is part of the role. Specifically because I read a claim in something which I can't find now, after searching for 15 seconds but it would have been Guardian or Economist or BBC, that the vice presidential candidate's role is much more to do the attacking so the presidential candidate can be, well, presidential. Unlike the current office holder.
That's a traditional role of the VP candidate. The VP does the bulk of the negative campaigning.

A good example of this is Bush/Cheney.
Okay but what if she's bad at being the heavy, which I kind of think she is? I would say it's better to assess the situation and make variances from the standard playbook if needed then to go down swinging in pursuit of orthodoxy and going by the dictates of a standard playbook.
I'm better with Harris in attack dog mode now. At the point I wrote that post, it was just a short while after she accepted. She was speaking in attack mode but it seemed forced to me. I kind of had the impression that she herself was thinking it was gratuitous, like is this really necessary to say this stuff out loud? Haven't people been seeing all this with their own eyes and ears?

I think she's gotten pretty good at it now.
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  #85  
Old 10-18-2020, 03:12 AM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

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Originally Posted by Stephen Maturin View Post
Please don't spend any money on the Colorado U.S. Senate race. Hickenlooper's campaign is loaded, and the NRSC is spending next to nothing trying to get Gardner reelected. The clowns running Hick's campaign are utterly bereft of competence, yet the clowns running Gardner's campaign are somehow measurably worse.
The FEC says that Hickenlooper has raised $36.3m to Gardner's $24.6m. So he has gotten about 60% of the money for CO.

This puts him about at the average in terms of fundraising advantage for Democratic Senate candidates (61%), but a little behind the average for competitive races (65%).

Lujan has less money, but his fundraising advantage is actually better than Hickenlooper's, at 72%.

For cash on hand, Hickenlooper has $7.2m to Gardner's $6.8m (or 51%). Lujan has $2.4m to his opponent Ronchetti's $1.5m (or 62%). Now, I don't know if this accounts for ad buys that haven't aired yet... maybe Hickenlooper has less cash on hand because he's already reserved more airtime. That could be.

Additionally, 538 gives Gardner a 19% chance of winning, to Ronchetti's mere 6%.

So while I understand not being excited by Hickenlooper that much and not wanting to give him money, it seems to me that if your goal is purely maximizing Democratic chances in the Senate, Hickenlooper seems to be a better choice.

But there's obviously some uncertainty there, so it's fine to hedge your bets and give some to both. And if you really like LujŠn, or his colleague in New Mexico like Xochitl Torres Small, who's in a competitive race, doesn't hurt to send money their way. But Hickenlooper is better if you mainly care about winning the Senate.
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  #86  
Old 10-19-2020, 10:08 PM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

Voted in person today. Strong turnout. There was a line at 2 p.m. on a Monday, but it was moving briskly - took about 25 minutes from getting out of the car to getting back in the car. This is a deep blue area.

As of 1:30 this afternon, a little over 1 million early ballots had been cast in NC, not including absentee ballots. That is in 4.5 days of early voting. There are still 11.5 days to go. Another 600k+ absentee ballots returned.
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  #87  
Old 10-19-2020, 11:02 PM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

The lolorado early voting numbers are impressive. It's easy here because mail/dropbox voting is standard, but about four days ago Jena Griswold, who in 2018 became the first Democrat elected as Colorado Secretary of State since 1958, announced that number of votes cast as of 10/15 was 24 times higher than at the same point in 2016.
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  #88  
Old 10-20-2020, 01:43 AM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

We voted last week by mail.
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  #89  
Old 10-20-2020, 02:06 AM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

I dragged my sorry ass to the polls here in Texas last Thursday, waited 5 minutes in line and cast a vote for the least evil of two lessers.
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Old 10-20-2020, 02:57 AM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

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I dragged my sorry ass to the polls here in Texas last Thursday, waited 5 minutes in line and cast a vote for the least evil of two lessers.
You can call me old fashioned, but I appreciate the outside the Euclidean box thinking that Cthulhu brings to solving political problems.



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  #91  
Old 10-20-2020, 06:15 AM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

I was told that I'm going to regret my vote for Biden because there is a scandal coming that will make Democrats burn down their party offices when we find out what that scandal is. (I'm 99% certain they think the NY Post story is true and has verifiable facts.)
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  #92  
Old 10-20-2020, 06:49 AM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

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I was told that I'm going to regret my vote for Biden because there is a scandal coming that will make Democrats burn down their party offices when we find out what that scandal is. (I'm 99% certain they think the NY Post story is true and has verifiable facts.)
And if things go as usual, there is a scandal that should rightly make Republicans burn down their party offices when we find out what that scandal is. (I'm 99% certain the mental gymnastics will be superhuman.)
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  #93  
Old 10-20-2020, 08:30 AM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

Given that Trump floods the zone with bullshit constantly, it won't surprise me if nobody outside the wingnut bubble takes his latest bullshit all that seriously.

I've read some of the basic critique of it from third-parties, but I can't even be bothered to learn the details because it's just too exhausting to keep up with their lies, even for debunking purposes.

It would be nice to be given a break from the constant projectile diarrhea spew of bullshit.
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Old 10-20-2020, 08:39 AM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

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I was told that I'm going to regret my vote for Biden because there is a scandal coming that will make Democrats burn down their party offices when we find out what that scandal is. (I'm 99% certain they think the NY Post story is true and has verifiable facts.)
Every accusation, etc
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  #95  
Old 10-20-2020, 08:43 AM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by beyelzu View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by viscousmemories View Post
I dragged my sorry ass to the polls here in Texas last Thursday, waited 5 minutes in line and cast a vote for the least evil of two lessers.
You can call me old fashioned, but I appreciate the outside the Euclidean box thinking that Cthulhu brings to solving political problems.



:cthulhu::cthulhu: :cthulhu2::cthulhu2: :cthulhu3::cthulhu3: :cthulhu::cthulhu2: :cthulhu3::cthulhu3: :cthulhu2::cthulhu:
Given the amount of insanity already prevalent, I suspect Great Cthulhu may already have begun His rise. Might take a while I suppose - I mean He's a big dude, and getting on in years aeons.
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  #96  
Old 10-20-2020, 09:19 PM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

tl;dw "don't be an asshole vote for Biden"

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  #97  
Old 10-20-2020, 10:16 PM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

I tried to tell this to the guy I know who's voting third party, but said he'd vote for Biden if he agreed to a debate moderated by Joe Rogan. Because of course.

The problem is that li'l bro is a white man, born here, and doing fairly well (in large part because I helped him get into software development so he's not working retail anymore). And the most important thing to him are his 'principles.' He isn't voting for Biden because he is a whiny child who will toss a fit if he can't have his way. He'll never need an abortion. He'll never get deported to a country he doesn't remember, where he may not even speak the language. His family isn't being held in immigration camps. He's got that sweet job security, so he won't lose his health insurance. White supremacist terrorists won't be targeting him with violence. The only thing that's really important to him are his feelings about his personal brand.
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  #98  
Old 10-20-2020, 10:17 PM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

alt tl;dw:
Vote fuckin' corporate tool, don't vote fuckin' fascist.
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  #99  
Old 10-20-2020, 10:23 PM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

So I'm pretty suspicious of that. I think I know that guy's mom. She is a white lady who is retired. She is all about culture of life, see, and is horrified by how Trump is kind of killing tens of thousands of people with COVID all the time. And separating families at the borders, that was horrifying to see, if it actually happened. But 'bortion! 'bortion 'bortion 'bortion! And Biden loves that 'bortion. So she just doesn't know. Maybe she will vote for a third party and stick to those principles.

She isn't voting for Biden because She. Wants. To. Vote. For. Trump.
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  #100  
Old Yesterday, 02:34 AM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

Are you talking about the video I linked to? I'm confused.
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