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  #26  
Old 07-17-2020, 06:22 PM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

I know COVID is real because my daughter had it. I wear a mask everywhere, at work and in public places, the only time I don’t is when I’m outside. Since I don’t attend protests, there is no need for me to wear a mask outside usually. My prediction is that it will be a close race. Just as close as it was last time. Last time there were A LOT of peeps who didn’t want Hillary in office, or Bill for that matter. But this time there are A LOT of peeps who want trump out and would vote for a turtle instead. So, we’ll see. I cannot predict the outcome as far as who the victor will be but I will bet money it will be close and then there will be controversy as to whether the tallying was correct, and recounts and what not will happen.

edited: Oh and Qanon, I really don’t know much about them. I’ve listened to a few pod casts and read a few things, but they purport some things that I know are utterly false, so I don’t trust them to correctly discern anything. Although there are some things they say that I agree with.
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  #27  
Old 07-17-2020, 07:51 PM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

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Originally Posted by ChuckF View Post
pea is correct. The polling data is encouraging, but: Trump's failures haven't made the Trumpists less deranged. If anything, their impotence in the face of a virus that terrifies them and cannot be controlled by bluster and masculinity ritual alone makes them even angrier.
True stuff. After 2016, I will never again be encouraged by polling data. The Trump campaign is all about assuring that the hardcore racist authoritarians - which apparently number about 40-45% of the voting public - turn out on election day.

Biden's support is lukewarm at best (was gonna say a mile wide and a millimeter deep, but it's more like standard-size-Muskin-back-yard-above-ground-pool wide and a millimeter deep). In any event, Ol' Joe will fuck up plenty between now and November, causing some who would have otherwise voted for him to blow off the election.

The remaining margin of victory will come from strategic ratfucking of the opposition vote. Biden can't very well win if his votes don't get counted. And barring that, there are a couple of crazypants horror show scenarios over which I can't stop obsessing.1

Miss Shelby makes good points about 2016. Clinton was arguably the best qualified candidate ever to seek the office of POTUS. However, the wingnut smear machine had been pissing in the Clinton punchbowl constantly since about 1980. By the time 2016 rolled around, Hillary Clinton was pretty much the only big-name Dem who could generate enough visceral hatred to lose to Donald Fucking Trump. Wasn't going to happen for a variety of reasons, but Biden would have had a very good shot at winning it all had he run as the sitting VP in 2016. It's a different world now.

Anyhoo, here's hoping the young 'un recovers quickly and completely, Shelbz.

1 My "favorite" goes something like this. Biden wins the popular vote and the electoral college, both by fairly close margins. Bill Barr announces that the Justice Department has evidence of massive election interference by China on Biden's behalf and launches an investigation. The investigation being a sham and all, it isn't complete by the time the Electoral College is scheduled to meet. The Administration sends troops to stop electors from meeting in their various states. SCOTUS refuses to get involved. Absent enough electoral votes, the House of Representatives decides who becomes president and vice president. Dems outnumber Republicans overall in the House, but that doesn't matter since each state delegation gets one vote. State delegations with Republican majorities outnumber those with Dem majorities 26-23, so Trump wins.
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  #28  
Old 07-17-2020, 09:01 PM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

I'm still pretty sanguine. Looking at the 2018 blurple ripple result is one source of encouragement. CW says older voters (Dump voters) tend to turn out better in non-prez elections, and they got swatted with a damp rag then. Things have only gotten worse for Dump since then.

While acknowledging there are some goppers who still don't realize Dump is trying to croner us all to death, there are others who have or will certainly catch on. Some of the southern states are going to end up in worse shape than even the big east was at their own peak, looks to me. Even if they start to fix the problem now, it's still going to be hanging around in three and a half months. Expect those states to get blasted with ads about Dump's predictions that croners would already be gone last spring, rofl rofl rofl.

As mentioned upthread, Biden isn't Hillary, and hasn't been Hillary Pilloried for decades. Goppers are still looking to put Hilly in jail and buying jail Hillary merchandise.

A lot of goppers will be a lot more comfortable with Biden's stodgy centrist disposition. Trying to paint Biden a socialist isn't going to work except for with the most malleable of mush brains.

Biden can learn from a Hillary screw up and not neglect to make some sort of effort in the great lakes and thereabouts swing states. She took them for granted and that really left a gap for Dump to get his foot in the door. She was counting on a blue wall as if it were her god granted birth right or what not. Fatal error. Turns out you have to at least show your face a little.

If Bilbar Baghead or Moscow Myrtle McTurtle try to whip up some last minute investigation froth on Biden and Hunter, I expect that some will recognize it for grandstanding and most of the rest will babble incoherently online about Crowdstrike or some dumb shit. It's going to be even harder to get people to try to pay attention to a plot line about which Ukrainian prosecutor was good and which was bad and all that than it was during the impeachment hearings.

Caveats are of course voter disenfranchisement and end game lie-cheat-steal rat fuckery, as described so adroitly by our own S. Maturin. As always, I could be drastically wrong and find out the goppers are 10 feet tall and bulletproof and they just flat win.
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  #29  
Old 07-18-2020, 12:06 AM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

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voter disenfranchisement and end game lie-cheat-steal rat fuckery
That's my primary concern, but I forgot to mention the Liberal (:lol:) Mainstream Media in the last post. They give zero fucks about anything beyond the horse race, so they'll surely be placing their big fat thumbs on the Trump side of scale yet again.
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  #30  
Old 07-18-2020, 12:20 AM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

Yeah, p much all of the hashtag winning tromp did I lay at the feet of "can you belive this nunburger candidate is still saying things? He's saying things! Wow, hey $candidate, did you see that tromp said a thing? how do you respond to this thing that tromp said?"
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  #31  
Old 07-18-2020, 01:10 AM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

electoral-vote.com

Bye bye, orange shitgibbon. :wave: May you rot in prison for the rest of your life after this is over.
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  #32  
Old 07-18-2020, 05:00 AM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

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electoral-vote.com

Bye bye, orange shitgibbon. :wave: May you rot in prison for the rest of your life after this is over.
I say this as a fan of the site: In 2016, the same site has Clinton winning by a significant amount. I treat this site and 538 with a lot more skepticism than I did before. Electoral-vote in particular made it feel like the numbers were more firm than reality.

Seeing the numbers is heartening, but any of the "Barely Democratic" states, and even some of the "Likely Democratic" states are potential losses.
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  #33  
Old 07-18-2020, 11:42 AM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

2016 was different. I think aggregate polls only had Clinton up by four, nationally, and she did win by two, which was several million votes. In her book, she blames Comey, and I agree with her, it had an effect. Biden's up by eight. He's just not as vulnerable to announcements about investigations. Dump hasn't really been able to find the right button to push to get his rabble roused. "Sleepy Joe" just isn't very much of a hook.

Dump is a known quantity now, rather than a hypothetical swamp drainer/wall builder/jailer of Hillary. The result ain't pretty. 140k and climbing dead, millions out of work, the glaring disconnect between the capital markets and the real world. These have to leave an impression.
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  #34  
Old 07-18-2020, 05:14 PM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

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2016 was different. I think aggregate polls only had Clinton up by four, nationally, and she did win by two, which was several million votes. In her book, she blames Comey, and I agree with her, it had an effect. Biden's up by eight. He's just not as vulnerable to announcements about investigations. Dump hasn't really been able to find the right button to push to get his rabble roused. "Sleepy Joe" just isn't very much of a hook.

Dump is a known quantity now, rather than a hypothetical swamp drainer/wall builder/jailer of Hillary. The result ain't pretty. 140k and climbing dead, millions out of work, the glaring disconnect between the capital markets and the real world. These have to leave an impression.
I'd feel safer with Biden with a double-digit national lead. Even at 8 points, all of those "Barely Democratic" states are within the margin of error.
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  #35  
Old 07-19-2020, 04:37 PM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

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electoral-vote.com

Bye bye, orange shitgibbon. :wave: May you rot in prison for the rest of your life after this is over.
I say this as a fan of the site: In 2016, the same site has Clinton winning by a significant amount.
Are you sure about this? The final pre-election page from that site is archived, but I can’t find it at the moment. If I recall correctly, the final pre-election page at electoral-vote.com forecast a slight Clinton victory, not a big victory. And I believe it was electoral-vote.com that put Ohio, in its final pre-election forecast, as “leaning Republican.” And I recall getting a chill looking at that, because I knew that Ohio had not failed to vote for the winning presidential candidate in any election since 1960, when it backed Nixon over Kennedy.

In any case, electoral.vote aggregates polls, and does no polling of its own, so there is no reason to be skeptical of it as such.

I think we should demythologize some of the claims that have grown like kudzu that the polls got it wildly wrong in 2016 and hence should not be trusted now. Here is the final pre-election report from Reuters.

Note:

Quote:
The former secretary of state was leading Trump by about 45 percent to 42 percent in the popular vote …
And she won the popular vote by 48-46 percent, which means the polls nationally were basically dead accurate, accounting for built-in margins of error.

And:

Quote:
Trump’s chances rest with his performance in Florida, Michigan, North Carolina and Ohio, which were too close to call on Sunday, when polling ended, and Pennsylvania, where Clinton enjoyed a slim lead of three percentage points. For Trump to win, he will have to take most of those states.
Bold mine.

And yes, Trump ended up winning all those states, but four were deemed “too close to call,” which means, well, they were not called. So basically the polls did not get it wrong. Everything that occurred occurred within the statistical margin of error, which is the best any polling can do.

I know for sure that Clinton never enjoyed anything like the lead Biden currently enjoys over tRump. The caveat of course is that as we are constantly (and appropriately) reminded, polls are snapshots in time and so all this could change. But then again there is no particular reason to think that it will change. Conditions in the country are just getting worse and worse and bad times always, historically, bode badly for the incumbent. The last two incumbent presidents who had poll numbers this bad at this time in their re-election years were the first Bush and Carter and they were both defeated handily.

You’d have to go back to Truman in 1948 who overcame similar wretched poll numbers, but polling was much less sophisticated back then and in any case, the pollsters quit polling two weeks before the election and hence did not catch the late swing from Dewey to Truman. Pollsters don’t make mistakes like that nowadays, and in any case, tRump is no Truman and Biden, while not exactly inspiring, is no Dewey, who famously said during the 1948 campaign: “The future lies ahead of us.”

Truman also used to delight crowds on his famed whistle-stop train tours by stroking his upper lip to remind people that Dewey’s mustache famously resembled that of Adolf Hitler. I wish Biden would adopt the same tactic and do this every time he talks about tRump: :kookoo: Although I’m not a fan of Truman for many reasons, good Zod how I wish he could be brought back to life and allowed to run against tRump.

As an aside, you can Google and find 1948 TV network coverage, I believe by NBC, online. It’s fascinating stuff. This was the first presidential election night covered by TV. 1960 CBS coverage of the Kennedy-Nixon election night is also fascinating, wherein they introduce the concept of a computer making predictions and calling results in the states and nationally. Cronkite and the others seemed to be in awe of the “electric brain.”
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  #36  
Old 07-19-2020, 05:07 PM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

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GOP assholes that I was fucking online
How many of those are there?
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  #37  
Old 07-19-2020, 06:04 PM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

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electoral-vote.com

Bye bye, orange shitgibbon. :wave: May you rot in prison for the rest of your life after this is over.
I say this as a fan of the site: In 2016, the same site has Clinton winning by a significant amount.
Are you sure about this? The final pre-election page from that site is archived, but I can’t find it at the moment. If I recall correctly, the final pre-election page at electoral-vote.com forecast a slight Clinton victory, not a big victory. And I believe it was electoral-vote.com that put Ohio, in its final pre-election forecast, as “leaning Republican.” And I recall getting a chill looking at that, because I knew that Ohio had not failed to vote for the winning presidential candidate in any election since 1960, when it backed Nixon over Kennedy.

In any case, electoral.vote aggregates polls, and does no polling of its own, so there is no reason to be skeptical of it as such.

I think we should demythologize some of the claims that have grown like kudzu that the polls got it wildly wrong in 2016 and hence should not be trusted now. Here is the final pre-election report from Reuters.
ElectoralVote

Top line had Clinton 323 vs Trump 215. CO, PA, NC, MA, FL as "Barely Democratic" and AZ, IA, OH, MS, SC and "Barely Republican" WI and MI were "Likely Democratic". I consider 323 a pretty decisive win, but that's not what happened. Most of these "barely" states skewed to Trump.

538 was similar, but they recalculated more often and had Clinton at about a 2/3 chance of victory with similar numbers days before the election. IIRC, During most of October, they had Clinton's chances in the 90s.

I don't subscribe to the "polls got it wildly wrong" idea, but I fell into the trap that those headline numbers actually meant something.
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  #38  
Old 07-19-2020, 08:36 PM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

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Originally Posted by davidm View Post
electoral-vote.com

Bye bye, orange shitgibbon. :wave: May you rot in prison for the rest of your life after this is over.
I say this as a fan of the site: In 2016, the same site has Clinton winning by a significant amount.
Are you sure about this? The final pre-election page from that site is archived, but I can’t find it at the moment. If I recall correctly, the final pre-election page at electoral-vote.com forecast a slight Clinton victory, not a big victory. And I believe it was electoral-vote.com that put Ohio, in its final pre-election forecast, as “leaning Republican.” And I recall getting a chill looking at that, because I knew that Ohio had not failed to vote for the winning presidential candidate in any election since 1960, when it backed Nixon over Kennedy.

In any case, electoral.vote aggregates polls, and does no polling of its own, so there is no reason to be skeptical of it as such.

I think we should demythologize some of the claims that have grown like kudzu that the polls got it wildly wrong in 2016 and hence should not be trusted now. Here is the final pre-election report from Reuters.
ElectoralVote

Top line had Clinton 323 vs Trump 215. CO, PA, NC, MA, FL as "Barely Democratic" and AZ, IA, OH, MS, SC and "Barely Republican" WI and MI were "Likely Democratic". I consider 323 a pretty decisive win, but that's not what happened. Most of these "barely" states skewed to Trump.

538 was similar, but they recalculated more often and had Clinton at about a 2/3 chance of victory with similar numbers days before the election. IIRC, During most of October, they had Clinton's chances in the 90s.

I don't subscribe to the "polls got it wildly wrong" idea, but I fell into the trap that those headline numbers actually meant something.
That is from Oct. 1 2016; could be that the Nov.1 electoral-vote tally was similar, and note that Ohio is ominously trending red, as I noted above gave me a chill. The Reuters link I gave above forecast a victory for Clinton by 303-235 electoral, but the important caveat is that Reuters itself (not the pollsters) was calling for Clinton at least four (and probably more) states that the pollsters themselves were judging too close to call.

It happened that tRump won every one of those too-close-to-call states, but that is not very surprising. I think the important point now is that Biden’s aggregate polling lead is much more robust than Clinton’s ever was, though again this is a snapshot in time and could change. But history suggests that tRump is toast. Remember too that tRump was the challenger last time, and this time he is the incumbent. When things go bad incumbents get the blame. This has been true almost without variance in American history: G.H.W. Bush and the recession; Carter and stagflation/hostage crisis; LBJ and Vietnam (he did not run for re-election but his veep Humphrey ran and lost); Hoover and the Great Depression.

You could go on and on into the 19th century and find the trend holding. Even Lincoln believed that he was going to lose re-election in 1864 until Sherman’s march through Georgia revived Northern morale. Unless something happens in three and half short months to turn things around, something on the scale of Sherman’s march to the sea, tRump is going to lose and probably badly.

As far as Covid goes, all forecasts are for things to get worse through the end of the year, and the public is right now blaming tRump and Rethuglican governors for that. If we look back 100 years to the 1920 election, I think tRump is facing defeat on a scale of Cox losing to Harding, though obviously the electoral map will look different this time. Harding’s victory by 26 percentage points over Cox remains the biggest percentage-point victory of all time.

Of course Harding turned out to be one of the worst presidents in American history, but I don’t think Biden will do that badly. He could not even conceivably do worse than the incumbent, in any event.
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  #39  
Old 07-19-2020, 09:46 PM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

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That is from Oct. 1 2016; could be that the Nov.1 electoral-vote tally was similar, and note that Ohio is ominously trending red, as I noted above gave me a chill. The Reuters link I gave above forecast a victory for Clinton by 303-235 electoral, but the important caveat is that Reuters itself (not the pollsters) was calling for Clinton at least four (and probably more) states that the pollsters themselves were judging too close to call.

It happened that tRump won every one of those too-close-to-call states, but that is not very surprising. I think the important point now is that Biden’s aggregate polling lead is much more robust than Clinton’s ever was, though again this is a snapshot in time and could change. But history suggests that tRump is toast. Remember too that tRump was the challenger last time, and this time he is the incumbent. When things go bad incumbents get the blame. This has been true almost without variance in American history: G.H.W. Bush and the recession; Carter and stagflation/hostage crisis; LBJ and Vietnam (he did not run for re-election but his veep Humphrey ran and lost); Hoover and the Great Depression.

You could go on and on into the 19th century and find the trend holding. Even Lincoln believed that he was going to lose re-election in 1864 until Sherman’s march through Georgia revived Northern morale. Unless something happens in three and half short months to turn things around, something on the scale of Sherman’s march to the sea, tRump is going to lose and probably badly.

As far as Covid goes, all forecasts are for things to get worse through the end of the year, and the public is right now blaming tRump and Rethuglican governors for that. If we look back 100 years to the 1920 election, I think tRump is facing defeat on a scale of Cox losing to Harding, though obviously the electoral map will look different this time. Harding’s victory by 26 percentage points over Cox remains the biggest percentage-point victory of all time.

Of course Harding turned out to be one of the worst presidents in American history, but I don’t think Biden will do that badly. He could not even conceivably do worse than the incumbent, in any event.
I don't disagree with any of this. I just don't want to feel too comfortable about it. I... donated to the Biden campaign this month. :unshock:
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  #40  
Old 07-20-2020, 02:01 AM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

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pea is correct. The polling data is encouraging, but: Trump's failures haven't made the Trumpists less deranged. If anything, their impotence in the face of a virus that terrifies them and cannot be controlled by bluster and masculinity ritual alone makes them even angrier.
True stuff. After 2016, I will never again be encouraged by polling data. The Trump campaign is all about assuring that the hardcore racist authoritarians - which apparently number about 40-45% of the voting public - turn out on election day.

Biden's support is lukewarm at best (was gonna say a mile wide and a millimeter deep, but it's more like standard-size-Muskin-back-yard-above-ground-pool wide and a millimeter deep). In any event, Ol' Joe will fuck up plenty between now and November, causing some who would have otherwise voted for him to blow off the election.

The remaining margin of victory will come from strategic ratfucking of the opposition vote. Biden can't very well win if his votes don't get counted. And barring that, there are a couple of crazypants horror show scenarios over which I can't stop obsessing.1

Miss Shelby makes good points about 2016. Clinton was arguably the best qualified candidate ever to seek the office of POTUS. [However, the wingnut smear machine had been pissing in the Clinton punchbowl constantly since about 1980. By the time 2016 rolled around, Hillary Clinton was pretty much the only big-name Dem who could generate enough visceral hatred to lose to Donald Fucking Trump. Wasn't going to happen for a variety of reasons, but Biden would have had a very good shot at winning it all had he
Anyhoo, here's hoping the young 'un recovers quickly and completely, Shelbz.

1 My "favorite" goes something like this. Biden wins the popular vote and the electoral college, both by fairly close margins. Bill Barr announces that the Justice Department has evidence of massive election interference by China on Biden's behalf and launches an investigation. The investigation being a sham and all, it isn't complete by the time the Electoral College is scheduled to meet. The Administration sends troops to stop electors from meeting in their various states. SCOTUS refuses to get involved. Absent enough electoral votes, the House of Representatives decides who becomes president and vice president. Dems outnumber Republicans overall in the House, but that doesn't matter since each state delegation gets one vote. State delegations with Republican majorities outnumber those with Dem majorities 26-23, so Trump wins.
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Old 07-20-2020, 04:30 AM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

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How many of those are there?
an embarrassingly large number no doubt. :)
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Old 07-20-2020, 08:11 AM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

538, which has not released its model yet, does have polling averages. They have Biden ahead by about 9 nationally, and have had him around there for the past month.

The contrast with 2016 is this: the polls would have to be at least twice as wrong as they were in 2016 for Trump to have a chance. In 2016, in mid-July (before the RNC, which caused a bump for Trump) Clinton lead by about 5. But there was significantly more volatility in the 2016 polls, with Clinton's lead narrowing to 1-2 pts or less at times. Biden has never lead by less than 4 pts, and he's been hovering around 50% almost the whole time (currently he's above 50%). Clinton never got above 43% in the polling average before the conventions, and never got higher than 46% at any point, which meant there was more uncertainty since there were more undecided/3rd-party voters (3rd-parties tend to get worse numbers on Election Day than they do in polls, with a larger effect the further from the election).

The Economist has a model up, which is perhaps a little too confident (this seems to be based on the model assuming there's less volatility due to political polarization over the past few cycles). But it has Biden to win by about 9 pts and over 90% to win. And even if they made more generous assumptions about poll volatility/error, he'd still be in the mid-80s, I believe.

A third forecast I've seen, which I don't know how much to trust, is JHK, which has somewhat more conservative numbers (and a Senate and House model) than the Economist, but largely tells the same story.

But at any rate, certainly I wouldn't say to get complacent. And I'd point out that in 2016 the correlation between Senate races and the presidential vote was at a record high. So even if Biden is winning by 7... if he were winning by 11, that would mean more Senate seats. And we see with RBG having health issues again (and any old-ass justice having the potential to catch coronavirus and die), having control of the Senate is essential. If you want to return balance to the courts, to outweigh the 34-year-old right-wing nutjob hacks they've been putting on the courts, we need the Senate. And if you don't want Joe Manchin to be the deciding vote on whether DC becomes a state or anything else, getting as many seats as possible is essential. And if you want as many Trump-supporting shitstains to get their comeuppance as possible, we need to win as big as possible. And of course, the larger the defeat, the more humiliating it is for Trump (and the harder for him to try to cheat his way into victory).

JHK is the only congressional forecast right now, and it has the Senate as a pure tossup. Winning the Senate is very much on the table. But it's far from sure, even with a big Biden lead right now.

Which means that even if Biden's gonna cruise to at least a 5 pt win no matter what we do... there still wouldn't be any justification for being complacent.
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  #43  
Old 07-20-2020, 09:18 AM
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Old 07-20-2020, 04:02 PM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

WaPo/ABC poll: Biden ahead of Trump 55% to 40%
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Old 07-20-2020, 05:29 PM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

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pea is correct. The polling data is encouraging, but: Trump's failures haven't made the Trumpists less deranged. If anything, their impotence in the face of a virus that terrifies them and cannot be controlled by bluster and masculinity ritual alone makes them even angrier.
True stuff. After 2016, I will never again be encouraged by polling data. The Trump campaign is all about assuring that the hardcore racist authoritarians - which apparently number about 40-45% of the voting public - turn out on election day.

Biden's support is lukewarm at best (was gonna say a mile wide and a millimeter deep, but it's more like standard-size-Muskin-back-yard-above-ground-pool wide and a millimeter deep). In any event, Ol' Joe will fuck up plenty between now and November, causing some who would have otherwise voted for him to blow off the election.

The remaining margin of victory will come from strategic ratfucking of the opposition vote. Biden can't very well win if his votes don't get counted. And barring that, there are a couple of crazypants horror show scenarios over which I can't stop obsessing.1

Miss Shelby makes good points about 2016. Clinton was arguably the best qualified candidate ever to seek the office of POTUS. However, the wingnut smear machine had been pissing in the Clinton punchbowl constantly since about 1980. By the time 2016 rolled around, Hillary Clinton was pretty much the only big-name Dem who could generate enough visceral hatred to lose to Donald Fucking Trump. Wasn't going to happen for a variety of reasons, but Biden would have had a very good shot at winning it all had he run as the sitting VP in 2016. It's a different world now.

Anyhoo, here's hoping the young 'un recovers quickly and completely, Shelbz.

1 My "favorite" goes something like this. Biden wins the popular vote and the electoral college, both by fairly close margins. Bill Barr announces that the Justice Department has evidence of massive election interference by China on Biden's behalf and launches an investigation. The investigation being a sham and all, it isn't complete by the time the Electoral College is scheduled to meet. The Administration sends troops to stop electors from meeting in their various states. SCOTUS refuses to get involved. Absent enough electoral votes, the House of Representatives decides who becomes president and vice president. Dems outnumber Republicans overall in the House, but that doesn't matter since each state delegation gets one vote. State delegations with Republican majorities outnumber those with Dem majorities 26-23, so Trump wins.
Thanks Stephen for your well wishes for my daughter. She was down for the count for about five days, sickest she's ever been she said. But she's 22 and healthy so that helps. What is horribly tragic is at the same time she was sick one of her close friends died under suspicious circumstances. Since she was quarantined she couldn't even be with her friends for support. when it rains it fucking pours
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Old 07-20-2020, 05:37 PM
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i don't know if this is a duplicate post. BUT Stephen i can't remember if I disagreed with you or Chuck F and what it was I disagreed with you about. Fucks sakes getting old is better than the alternative but that memory challenge thing is REAL . 30 years ago if something was on the tip of my tongue or right there at my memory but couldn't place it, no big thang. NOW if that happens I obsess over it until i remember. Dementia is real, ya dig me?
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Old 07-20-2020, 08:13 PM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

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Dementia is real, ya dig me?
Damn straight.















Wait, what's real now?
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Old 07-21-2020, 05:22 AM
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Old 07-28-2020, 03:32 PM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

What if Trump loses but refuses to leave office? Here's the worst-case scenario | Lawrence Douglas | Opinion | The Guardian
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Old 07-28-2020, 04:46 PM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

Worst-case scenarios are my favorite scenarios! :rainy::popcorn:
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