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  #51  
Old 07-28-2020, 06:33 PM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

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Worst-case scenarios are my favorite scenarios! :rainy::popcorn:
You must be loving 2020!
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  #52  
Old 08-13-2020, 12:01 AM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

I chose this thread to talk about Kamala Harris. I am... bemused at the choice?

I mean, I liked Harris as a candidate - even gave her and Warren money. She wasn't perfect, but she had a lot of the skillset I was looking for in a candidate. I wasn't super excited about her policies - she was my moderate Dem choice, but she is tremendously competent and is a skilled public speaker.

Once Biden announced he was going to pick a woman, she was always my #1 prediction. She's been not very subtly campaigning for the spot since Biden got the nomination.

But it's the safest, boring choice. Better than Kaine, but not a whole lot more inspired.

California is most likely going to go for Biden, so she's not bringing in that state. However, her replacement will almost certainly be a Democrat, so if she leaves, the Senate isn't losing ground. She has had national exposure and is fairly well known. It looks good to liberals that she scorched him in one of the debates, and he still picked her.

I do think it's funny that Trump pointed out she was nasty to that frat-boy supreme court justice. That's a selling point to most Democrats.

So, I guess I'm happy with the choice, but I'm left wondering what would happen with a truly "out-there" inspired choice.
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  #53  
Old 08-13-2020, 12:23 AM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

An "out there" choice would be a really, really stupid decision. Of course Harris is the safe choice. Biden is running ahead. Why risk that? He hasn't taken unnecessary risks so far and it would be really dumb to start now. Harris is fine.

That was a very good joint appearance this afternoon. I sent them some lucre. It's nice that it was followed shortly thereafter by Trump's drugged up rambling racism appearance.
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  #54  
Old 08-13-2020, 10:57 AM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

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Originally Posted by specious_reasons View Post
I do think it's funny that Trump pointed out she was nasty to that frat-boy supreme court justice. That's a selling point to most Democrats.
+1 :thanked:
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  #55  
Old 08-13-2020, 02:26 PM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

Going on personal reactions, I don't really respond that well to KH in attack dog mode. She needs to spend at least equal time on defining what she's for. I'd like to see sort of subtle hints of where she'd be as VP. Maybe mention the possibility of looking into some of McTurtle's lower court judges that were deemed unqualified by that organization that judges whether judges are judgeworthy or not. She was an AG, so that fits. Talk up student loan forgiveness. Talk up DACA, which is said to be popular. Think I saw something about an idea approaching UBI, which was a $500/mo tax credit she's said to support? Talk about expanding on what's left of Obamacare or starting over on healthcare. Jab away at Dump's saying he's preserving the no preexisting conditions exception, while actively trying to cancel it. They should keep reminding us that unless the Senate turns Dem, none of that will happen.

There's plenty to attack, as we've all covered ad infinitum. Let the PACS do a lot of the attacking and go negative early and often, maybe 60/40 attack/positive messaging. I feel the candidates should balance their message about 50/50 between pro policy and anti Dump. To put it another way, just by intuition, I think if they would be 80/20 attack/positive, it would be a wipeout for our team.

Not even apologizing for being crass, gauche, and crude about my enthusiasm to capitalize on identity politics, because we really need a minority female on the ticket. We can't win without high minority turnout, and especially high female minority. There has to be an impetus to draw that turnout. We haven't had a majority of white votes in decades, if I have my facts straight.
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  #56  
Old 08-13-2020, 02:48 PM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

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An "out there" choice would be a really, really stupid decision. Of course Harris is the safe choice. Biden is running ahead. Why risk that? He hasn't taken unnecessary risks so far and it would be really dumb to start now. Harris is fine.

That was a very good joint appearance this afternoon. I sent them some lucre. It's nice that it was followed shortly thereafter by Trump's drugged up rambling racism appearance.
Harris has some baggage - it's been hashed out here on :ff:. There are other potential options that would have excited the far-left and actually move Biden's ticket more progressive - some that even would have been acceptable to mainstream Democrats.

On the other hand, it's been calculated that the VP announcement added $35 million to Biden's donation, compared to the $10M bump Clinton got after announcing Kaine. So maybe this was absolutely the right call and I shouldn't be so bemused.
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  #57  
Old 08-13-2020, 03:35 PM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

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Going on personal reactions, I don't really respond that well to KH in attack dog mode. She needs to spend at least equal time on defining what she's for.
While she definitely does need to define her definition, I wonder it attack mode is part of the role. Specifically because I read a claim in something which I can't find now, after searching for 15 seconds but it would have been Guardian or Economist or BBC, that the vice presidential candidate's role is much more to do the attacking so the presidential candidate can be, well, presidential. Unlike the current office holder.
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  #58  
Old 08-13-2020, 03:47 PM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

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Going on personal reactions, I don't really respond that well to KH in attack dog mode. She needs to spend at least equal time on defining what she's for.
While she definitely does need to define her definition, I wonder it attack mode is part of the role. Specifically because I read a claim in something which I can't find now, after searching for 15 seconds but it would have been Guardian or Economist or BBC, that the vice presidential candidate's role is much more to do the attacking so the presidential candidate can be, well, presidential. Unlike the current office holder.
That's a traditional role of the VP candidate. The VP does the bulk of the negative campaigning.

A good example of this is Bush/Cheney.
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  #59  
Old 08-13-2020, 04:54 PM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

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[Trump] inherited the longest economic expansion in history from Barack Obama and Joe Biden. And then, like everything else he inherited, he ran it straight into the ground.
~ Sen. Kamala Harris

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  #60  
Old 08-13-2020, 05:00 PM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

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An "out there" choice would be a really, really stupid decision. Of course Harris is the safe choice. Biden is running ahead. Why risk that? He hasn't taken unnecessary risks so far and it would be really dumb to start now. Harris is fine.

That was a very good joint appearance this afternoon. I sent them some lucre. It's nice that it was followed shortly thereafter by Trump's drugged up rambling racism appearance.
Harris has some baggage - it's been hashed out here on :ff:. There are other potential options that would have excited the far-left and actually move Biden's ticket more progressive - some that even would have been acceptable to mainstream Democrats.

On the other hand, it's been calculated that the VP announcement added $35 million to Biden's donation, compared to the $10M bump Clinton got after announcing Kaine. So maybe this was absolutely the right call and I shouldn't be so bemused.
No real need to care about exciting the far left, as far as I can tell. Bernie won like...six primaries? Four in safe D states and 2 in safe R states. If Bernie couldn't muster adequate excitement, hard to imagine Biden's VP choice is going to be dispositive in winning them over. There's probably not anything Biden could do to cure all that bitterness. Bernie's endorsement of Biden didn't seem to help much. Mainstream Democrats will vote for Biden anyway. Biden's path is bringing one-time Trump voting Democrats back into the fold and reassembling some of Obama's old coalition - Harris is not a bad way to do that.
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  #61  
Old 08-13-2020, 05:16 PM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

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Going on personal reactions, I don't really respond that well to KH in attack dog mode. She needs to spend at least equal time on defining what she's for.
While she definitely does need to define her definition, I wonder it attack mode is part of the role. Specifically because I read a claim in something which I can't find now, after searching for 15 seconds but it would have been Guardian or Economist or BBC, that the vice presidential candidate's role is much more to do the attacking so the presidential candidate can be, well, presidential. Unlike the current office holder.
That's a traditional role of the VP candidate. The VP does the bulk of the negative campaigning.

A good example of this is Bush/Cheney.
Okay but what if she's bad at being the heavy, which I kind of think she is? I would say it's better to assess the situation and make variances from the standard playbook if needed then to go down swinging in pursuit of orthodoxy and going by the dictates of a standard playbook.
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Old 08-13-2020, 05:42 PM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

One serendipitous and quite possibly fortuitous confluence here is in South Carolina with SC Senator Jim Clyburn (Biden's kingmaker), and Jaimes Harrison (African American SC democrat) running to unseat SC Senator Lindsey Graham, lickspittle Republican. I'm definitely donating there, it's a close race by the polling. A Harrison win would be abfab.
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  #63  
Old 08-13-2020, 07:14 PM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

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One serendipitous and quite possibly fortuitous confluence here is in South Carolina with SC Senator Jim Clyburn (Biden's kingmaker), and Jaimes Harrison (African American SC democrat) running to unseat SC Senator Lindsey Graham, lickspittle Republican. I'm definitely donating there, it's a close race by the polling. A Harrison win would be abfab.
Another :ff: thread succumbs to predictions that get me all hopeful but which will only end in disappointment.
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  #64  
Old 08-30-2020, 06:50 PM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

People of :ff:, clarify this for me.

Letters to the editor | Letters | The Economist
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Kamala Harris, you claim, “comes from the Democratic Party’s centre”, is “not particularly ideological”, and never strays “too far from where a majority of voters are” (“What Kamala says about Joe”, August 15th). Her voting record in the Senate indicates otherwise. According to UCLA’s VoteView website, Ms Harris’s votes are more left-leaning than that of any other senator, except Elizabeth Warren. Her voting record is further to the left than even Bernie Sanders, the only avowed socialist in the Senate.

ROBERT HELBING
Monrovia, California
Wot? This flies in the face of what I've read, including at my most trusted news & analysis source, :ff:.

The writer doesn't provide a specific url and the Economist never replies to or qualifies letters, but I'm guessing they're referring to Voteview | HARRIS, Kamala Devi. That does indeed have a little chart with the bimodal distribution typical of party-loyalty not merits-of-each-issue voting, and Harris well to the left; with hovertext "more liberal than 99% of the xxx senate / more liberal than 97% of Democrats".

Further left than Sanders? Is this a fair analysis, or is this letter writer twisting website is saying, or is the website itself presenting a weird perspective?

Never mind that "further left than 99% of the senate" probably means "about median for European politicians", and not necessarily actually liberal let alone socialist in a global sense.
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  #65  
Old 08-30-2020, 07:21 PM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

VoteView is accurate at what it measures, it just only measures voting patterns regarding the parties and who votes together. It doesn't distinguish whether you voted for or against something for right-wing or left-wing reasons, ergo it doesn't always work great when someone is on the far left or right of the party and unwilling to compromise and therefore votes against left/Democratic bills or right/Republican bills, respectively.

It also, importantly, doesn't measure what doesn't get voted on. If Medicare For All isn't voted on because McConnell never brings it to a vote, it doesn't go in the equation.

It is probably still accurate to say that Harris has one of the most liberal Senate records over her tenure, but it's probably not accurate about the precise rankings of the handful of most liberal or conservative members of Congress.
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  #66  
Old 09-28-2020, 02:21 AM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

I would like to add the insane level of hipocrisy required to go ahead with a Barrett confirmation and the new realms of political pain the NYT tax story is going to bring to the case in favor of a blue wave (please imagine Peewee Herman saying BLUE WAVE here). I suppose low interest voters will require these to be put in some form of context relevant to themselves in order to move the needle. Since it should be really simple to frame those arguments, if the DNC and associated travelers aren't up to that, they are really bad at politics but there is still enough cushion in general that might give us a proper wave anyway.

Biden should be hectoring Dump to release his tax returns forthwith, long, hard and continuous, and reminding us of how Dump harassed Obama into releasing the loooong form. He should force the issue of whether Dump still believes in birferism while he's at it.
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  #67  
Old 09-29-2020, 02:19 AM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

Shit, he doesn't have to go past last week. Dumbfuck just called for Biden to have a drug test before the debate. "You want to analyze my piss, but you won't provide basic information about yourself that every modern President has."
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  #68  
Old 09-30-2020, 12:56 AM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

Our internet service at home has been kaput since midnight last night. This time it ain't just us; Comcast is non-consensually shtupping the entire City and County of Juggalonia.

I'll soon be leaving work and going back to my internet-free home. The internet-free part is a good thing tonight, as I'll be spared the cavalcade of references to earpieces, performance-enhancing drugs, and "Dementia Joe."
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Old 09-30-2020, 03:17 PM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

Yeah, honestly, I'm kind of glad I had an excuse not to watch that debate. The internet went out at midnight and didn't come back up again until 10:30PM.

We've exchanged guest network passwords with our new next door neighbors, who use the other ISP, so I did get to download a few podcasts at least.
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Old 09-30-2020, 03:39 PM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

I guess it's "good" that I didn't hear the President of the United States tell a violent fascist white supremacist hate group to "stand by" in real time, but it's disturbing just the same.
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Old 09-30-2020, 07:54 PM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

Mrs. Puppet talked me into watching it. My major takeaways:

Who the fuck thought Chris Wallace was a sane, let alone good, choice of moderator? Dude wouldn't be able to herd a flock consisting of one sheep. I can only conclude that the resulting chaos was intentional. As if it wouldn't have been chaotic enough even with a good moderator. They could easily have cut each mike while the other got his 2 minutes; somebody made a conscious decision not to.

With regard to who got under whose skin the most, Biden did very well. He laughed off most of Agent Orange's lie-spew, and damned nearly made Rump's head explode when he implied he wasn't smart.

Of course, immediately afterward, the commentators started blathering about Biden's muttered "Would you just shut up," and calling Trump a clown, without the slightest bit of context. If you didn't see the debate, you might think Trump was the one who got to Biden. That ain't how it went down. Biden was as cool-headed as anyone could be expected to be under the circumstances, and Trump just got redder, angrier and more incoherent as he tried to land a blow. IMO, none landed.

Did you miss any important statement about the issues? Lol no. This was just reality-show theater, and for all his experience with it, Rump failed miserably.
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Old 10-01-2020, 05:20 AM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

Let's pretend we live in a less insane timeline. Let's say they do the "your microphone only works when it's your turn." I can honestly imagine the Toddler in Chief getting louder and louder, shouting and spitting and flailing and stomping and then marching over to the live microphone to say his not-even-good-enough-to-be-Palin word salad bullshit. You know. Exactly like a toddler who was feeling like mommy wasn't paying him enough attention at that very second. You know why I think this? Because in this timeline where parody and satire have been marched out back and shot, without any fanfare, has taught me that whatever the dumbest thing you can think of is as low as it gets, there is a crawlspace beneath that basement which has been sinking into the muck for decades already.
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Old 10-02-2020, 06:37 AM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

I don't want him to die. Pence or a mop handle probably has a better chance of winning than the Dump Meister. Him catching the nineteen but not snuffing it, that's pretty ideal for a Bruise-A-Paloozah.
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  #74  
Old 10-02-2020, 06:53 AM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

Or:

"See? IT'S JUST A COLD! GET OUT AND VOTE FOR ME!"
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  #75  
Old 10-02-2020, 06:54 AM
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Default Re: Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

I don't think Pence has a better chance. He's got the charisma of a 2 by 4.
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