Those using this to run anti-Biden campaigns are either idiots or grifters and have gone down a notch in my opinion.
Campaigning against Biden's policies is one thing, campaigning for aid, for Palestine or even another option besides Biden, all great, but using Palestine to sour people on Biden when the only other option is Trump is either an amazingly dumb, shoot themselves in the foot, moment, or an obvious cash grab to ride the latest anger into some nice cash. But then maybe I'm feeling cynical about this.
So what you're saying, vm, is that the continued Israeli attack on Gaza is specifically supported by Russia, in order to make Biden look bad and to help get their shit-filled puppy into the presidency in November?
I disagree, Ari. I have been immersed in the Arab-American community (online anyway) for the past 6-8 weeks and I think anyone with friends and family in Palestine (which is a lot of people in Michigan) understand that there is no significant difference between Democrats and Republicans when it comes to protecting and uplifting their people. I don't think I'm dumb, ignorant, or a grifter and I still believe (today, anyway) that a Republican administration in the US would be a net negative for the world, but the idea that anyone with roots or connections to Palestine would give a single shit about the threats to our democratic way of life in the US posed by Trump while Biden and the Democrats are vetoing ceasefire resolutions and funneling money and arms to support the genocide of their families (as they have been doing continuously since 1948 through Republican and Democratic administrations alike) is just not connected to reality. Yes, rationally speaking it would probably be worse for everyone if Trump were elected. But you might forgive people for not being entirely rational in their calculations when they are watching a live-streamed slaughter and starvation of their entire culture day after day, and the only response from Biden is mumbled "hope" that Netanyahu will slow down the genocide while continuing to dump cash and arms on him. And that assumes that you and I are correct about what the rational choice is in this case, and I'm not sure we are. What specifically do you think Trump would do that would be worse for the Palestinian people than what Biden is doing?
Yes I'm sure many feel that way but it seems very 'let's move to Russia to escape the woke mob' 'I'm sure the leopards won't eat my face' 'but her e-mails!' I don't blame them for feeling abandoned by the US, but it could be worse.
One side has floated the removal of natural born citizenship, large scale deportation, mosque bans, headscarf bans, we all know one justice that would ban interracial marriage if he could, it's the return to a christian nation and removal of who oppose. They would support a state of Palestine if it meant they could ship all of them back there, as to them they aren't real Americans. The GOP is happy with maximizing the numbers of muslim and jew death so long as it doesn't take away from their pockets or disagrees with the orders of their Russian owners.
But yes, both sides are the same and the best option in this case is a hold their breath till they turn blue style of protest vote, why not, it's not my face the leopards will eat.
What specifically do you think Trump would do that would be worse for the Palestinian people than what Biden is doing?
Trump has already done it. Moving the embassy to Jerusalem was a big green light to the Israeli far-right, and a huge middle-finger to the Palestinians. Biden would not have done that. And making Jared Kushner a middle east envoy …
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... it's just an idea
Last edited by mickthinks; 02-21-2024 at 06:56 PM.
I don't blame them for feeling abandoned by the US
You just called them "either idiots or grifters".
Maybe you can disagree with people who are having their government collude with the genocide of their relatives without being an absolute asshole about them.
This "vote the lesser evil" stuff pisses me off so much. Not because it's wrong, exactly, but because of how much it enragingly leaves out. It lumps most of the moral agency on the people in the worst positions, scolding them to suppress their very understandable outrage because there are worse bastards out there.
Just maybe there's a moral responsibility for Democrat voters to actually join the struggles, listen, understand and work together to build a common movement that actually works towards better. You don't get that by scolding people to vote the lesser evil then wringing your hands and saying "it wasn't my fault" when it doesn't work.
Yes some activists do what I just described. And you know what? I bet people are much more motivated to vote for candidates when they see supporters alongside them in a struggle.
I don't blame them for feeling abandoned by the US
You just called them "either idiots or grifters".
Oh sorry, I don't blame Palestinian Americans for feeling abandoned by the US and choosing to vote None of the above because of that feeling.
I'm calling the people in positions of power, who have real access to others in positions of power and largish mouth pieces, who then suggest knee jerk, poisoning the well responses to this feeling of abandonment such as souring people on Biden as an attempt to strong arm the party. It strikes me as a childish response and something done by someone who is either unaware of how bad it could get, or quite aware that big knee jerk, get on Fox news style acts often bring in the cash.
But Ari, all the examples of "how bad it could get" that you provided are about conditions of life in the United States. You are in effect suggesting that Palestinian-American allies in positions of power should bite their tongues while the US and Israel are committing genocide in Gaza because if Trump is elected they might lose the right to wear headscarves at Kroger. I saw a post on LinkedIn yesterday from a Palestinian-American whose family is literally starving in Gaza right now, today, and you are scolding people who are rightly pointing out that US government support under a Democratic administration is the only reason this is able to continue. With all due respect I don't know how you could possibly make that argument unless you are in very different bubble than the one many Arab-Americans are in.
With all due respect I don't know how you could possibly make that argument unless you are in very different bubble than the one many Arab-Americans are in.
Because the Democrats are not actually stopping any [death][genocide][The Crusades] caused by any USA [bullets][guns][policies][imperialism] yet?
Because the Democrats also seem to never identify the [past collaborations][UK and US imperialist colonialist policy][future] of the "State of Israel" at all?
Israel, the State, is a theocracy, but no one says so, out loud?
Call me crazy, but, maybe there are reasons why many Western-civ folks have no problem with genocide or theocracy yet?
Maybe some of them are doing it for the money, like PA Senator John Fetterman said he was doing it for, in the news, when he mocked and trolled people who wanted him to stop genocide? The Major Donors matter more? Hm. hm...
Is "Radical Islam - I mean, Islam - " what the taxpayers and their elected representatives are fighting against? If not, then, what? Hm. Have any Muslims been displaced, or killed? At all? Has any money been spent on it?
Maybe some folks chose to vote for, volunteer for, and donate to Democrats, expecting a change, or hoping for a change?
Maybe some folks voted for a Democratic President who ran on a platform of hope and change, who, later, openly declined to suppot his own party's candidate for Governor of the State of New Jersey? In favor of the Republican?
And all of the NJ Dems also declined to support their own party's candidate for Gov of NJ? Except for the mayor of Fort Lee, NJ? Only one lady died, so, it was okay. Bridgegate was hardly a scandal.
Sorry if I sound jaded or bitter. I dislike genocide. But, I'm crazy, so, eh.
But Ari, all the examples of "how bad it could get" that you provided are about conditions of life in the United States. You are in effect suggesting that Palestinian-American allies in positions of power should bite their tongues while the US and Israel are committing genocide in Gaza because if Trump is elected they might lose the right to wear headscarves at Kroger.
No.
I'm watching Russia outright murder the opposition, then round up their supporters to murder them indirectly by sending them to the front, where Russia has learned that enough dead bodies will result in a victory.
The GOP is both owned by and idolizes Russia, has floated some crazy totalitarian ideas and forced itself into enough political power that Trump is floating forcing through a national abortion ban despite the clear opposition by the American people. They have the means to make it utterly horrible for certain people if they come into power, and not just being forced to sin just to buy groceries* (lack of headscarf at krogers,) but rounded up and shipped out.
I never said they should bite their tongue, I said they shouldn't poison the well. They should be absolutely critical of Biden, they should be on his ass about all sorts of things relating to following through with aid, with helping individuals stuck in both Gaza and Israel, but at the end of the day they should still support because the truth is, as presidents go, he is their only option. I know it's sad, and sucks, but that's just how it is, and there's a difference between being critical and suggesting tossing the game table if demands aren't met.
Let's be honest here and ignore the worst case scenarios above, in a years time when the scattered residents of Gaza are still picking themselves up and/or still being bombed to death by Israel, how many refugees will the Trump administration let in? How many will they provide resources too? What's the likelyhood the Trump administration can be convinced to pass an aid package for the 250k Palestinian Americans and their families abroad?
What is even the goal?
At no point does this end just because Biden stops supporting Israel, not only do they not need it, but it's so short sighted to think that the war ends when the war ends, and perhaps that's my problem, perhaps I'm seeing their short sighted inexperience as a con. They are so panicked about the situation now, they don't realize they're supposed to be stable resources for the situation after it unfolds. (A bit like someone who carries two guns so they have a backup in a shootout but not trauma pads or an escape plan.)
But hopefully my concern is of naught and they don't poison the well as I've feared.
(*I'm sure the people I regularly see shopping in Burkas would have opinions about this, but I don't know what they are, so I can't say if being forced to disobey their beliefs to shop is high or low on their list of offenses.)
I disagree, Ari. I have been immersed in the Arab-American community (online anyway) for the past 6-8 weeks
I'm gonna guess there's approximately 0% chance that the people you're interacting with online are representative of Arab- or Muslim-Americans generally.
For one, a significant minority of Arab- and Muslim-Americans voted for Trump! Sure, they mostly voted for Biden in 2020, but something like a quarter or more of them voted for Trump. But I'm guessing not a lot of Arab Trump supporters in the online spaces you're immersed in. If you're truly immersed, you should have encountered some Trump voters.
This is a thing I've seen pointed about some of the leaders of things like "Abandon Biden" - some of them are just Republicans, who are taking advantage of the situation to portray it as if Biden has lost them when they either didn't support him in the first place or are simply reverting to supporting their long-term party. Some of them were supporting Democrats because of Muslim civil rights issues or foreign policy but were conservatives who were never on board with Democratic policies regarding economic and/or social policy.
So for some of them it's not a matter of sacrificing something over their top issue - it's that they were sacrificing on other issues when they voted for Democrats - a lot of them are totally fine with what Trump and the GOP will do on other issues.
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I think anyone with friends and family in Palestine understand that there is no significant difference between Democrats and Republicans when it comes to protecting and uplifting their people.
Well, I think you're conflating now Arab-Americans and Palestinian-Americans a little bit.
Because Arab-Americans come from a lot of different countries, and are not all Muslims (most Lebanese-Americans, for example, are Christians).
But I would say "their people" includes, you know, Palestinian-Americans, not just people in Gaza or even Palestine-Israel overall. It includes Arab-Americans more generally.
And for the ones who are Muslim, it includes Muslim-Americans, I would think.
And you know, typically we would want to say that "their people" includes Americans in general and avoid the implication that immigrants only have allegiance to their home countries...
Now, I don't grant that Trump and Biden would have no substantive differences on the issue of Israel-Palestine and the Gaza war specifically, but setting that aside, I don't think you can say that there's no difference in what Trump and Biden will do for those groups of people.
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I don't think I'm dumb, ignorant, or a grifter and I still believe (today, anyway) that a Republican administration in the US would be a net negative for the world, but the idea that anyone with roots or connections to Palestine would give a single shit about the threats to our democratic way of life in the US posed by Trump while Biden and the Democrats are vetoing ceasefire resolutions and funneling money and arms to support the genocide of their families (as they have been doing continuously since 1948 through Republican and Democratic administrations alike) is just not connected to reality.
I mean, are they Americans?
Why shouldn't they give a shit about what happens in their country of birth/citizenship/residence?
If Russia invaded Sweden, a country I'm a citizen of, I would definitely care about what the US response was. But why would that then mean I'm indifferent to the Republicans, who want to take away my rights as a gay person, take away my sister's right to gender-affirming healthcare and other rights, and destroy the environment, among a multitude of other very bad things?
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But you might forgive people for not being entirely rational in their calculations
In the moment, I suppose. But I doubt this will still all be going on in 9 months, and I would kind of expect some rationality by then.
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What specifically do you think Trump would do that would be worse for the Palestinian people than what Biden is doing?
For one, he said he would deport people who were "pro-Hamas", which I'm guessing he would define a bit more loosely than you or I would (although there are definitely people who have expressed overtly pro-Hamas sentiments).
But we're talking about the guy who cut aid to Palestine, escalated drone strikes and stopped even counting civilian casualties from American air strikes.
So for one, I think he would cut humanitarian aid to Palestinians. He would not allow refugees in. He would not pressure Israel to avoid casualties at all, because he simply does not care about that.
And aside from that, would you rather the president be from the party where a supermajority think Israel deserves more support and that they've either responded well, or haven't gone far enough? Or from the party where a supermajority think they've gone too far?
Do you suppose that Trump will listen to Democratic voters rather than his own voters?
You really think there's no chance that Biden will get anything better done? Because Trump won't even face any pressure to do anything better - he does not give one shit what Democrats think, so Democratic opinion is basically irrelevant for what pressure he'll feel.
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Originally Posted by viscousmemories
But Ari, all the examples of "how bad it could get" that you provided are about conditions of life in the United States.
A lot of Palestinians have died, but it is still only 30k out of millions. If you don't think that things can get worse than what's happening now, it mostly just reflects a lack of imagination.
But it doesn't even require imagination because the Israeli far-right has expressed what they would like to do. They would like to settle in Gaza, expel the Palestinians and do a whole lot more. Now, I don't think they would necessarily do those things with Trump - there are still domestic constraints on doing that - but I do think that Trump would not care about them doing that and Biden would.
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You are in effect suggesting that Palestinian-American allies in positions of power should bite their tongues while the US and Israel are committing genocide in Gaza
You know, the US providing aid does implicate it in what's happening, but Israel does not really need that aid to do what they're doing. Saying that the US is committing genocide is a bit ridiculous.
Who else is committing genocide due to their complicity with China's policy towards Uyghurs then, for example?
The ever-so-principled South Africa instead praises China's "progress" in Xinjiang. I'm guessing it's because Israel doesn't matter for their economy but China does?
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because if Trump is elected they might lose the right to wear headscarves at Kroger.
He wants to deport them, curtail their freedom of speech, cut back on immigration from their countries, prevent the ones he can't deport from seeing their families with travel bans and elimination of family reunification.
And of course, he's going to appoint more Christian nationalists the courts, who will start to break down long-standing precedents on separation of church and state. You think putting up the Ten Commandments in classrooms is where they intend to stop if they get friendly courts?
The IVF decision from this week is a preview of how far they want to push things. The reason they want to end democracy is because they want to impose those things.
Maybe people want to take their chances. But if you think that the right to wear headscarves in school or something is the only thing potentially at risk...
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I saw a post on LinkedIn yesterday from a Palestinian-American whose family is literally starving in Gaza right now, today, and you are scolding people who are rightly pointing out that US government support under a Democratic administration is the only reason this is able to continue.
Well, I simply don't think the US is the "only reason" this is able to continue. Unless you think the US is going to put crippling sanctions on Israel or invade or something, Israel will be able to continue without our aid. I think this is just a fundamentally incorrect read of the situation. Only a small part of Israel's military budget comes from US aid. Why would withdrawing our aid change Netanyahu's calculus appreciably?
And here's the thing about those things: they would result in Republicans winning, undoing those actions, and enabling Israel to do worse, and Congress can take actions to stop Biden from doing sanctions anyway, and while I'm sure you'd say this reflects badly on Democrats, they don't need anywhere near a majority of them.
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With all due respect I don't know how you could possibly make that argument unless you are in very different bubble than the one many Arab-Americans are in.
Pointing out what is happening is one thing. Saying Biden is being too gentle with Netanyahu, who has no intention of stopping when that means he'll get kicked out of power, and who prefers Trump and therefore has no desire to help Biden, is another thing.
But I mean, when I see people saying that they want to punish Democrats, it's a little hard for me not to take that as wanting to punish me and my sister and all sorts of other Americans over something I can't stop, by taking an action that won't even stop the offense they're mad about and will likely make it worse.
I've mostly taken the opinion that I should not bother with arguing with these people, since, as you say, there's a lot of irrationality going on. Pushing them right now is not likely to be helpful and they didn't reason themselves into the position in the first place.
But I'm absolutely not going to say that helping Trump win is fine for them to do.
I am very far from an expert on foreign policy or the Middle East, but I have been unemployed since mid-November and so I’ve probably spent well over 60 hours a week since October 7th following what is happening in Palestine, learning about the history of the region, volunteering at Tech For Palestine. I have been reading news from the region (mostly Al Jazeera and Haaretz), articles, books, and social media posts, watching podcasts with experts (on the history and politics of the region as well as US international relations - I particularly like Mearsheimer on this) and livestreams/recordings from people on the ground in Gaza.
I have been watching UN briefings several times a week and UN livestreams of ICJ hearings (both cases against Israel: the recent complaint from South Africa and the one ghat started a year earlier in which the GA asked the ICJ to assess the legality of Israel’s occupation of the West Bank and Gaza), Security Council debates (including all three times the US has vetoed ceasefire resolutions), etc.
I have also been talking to people in the US and in the region (e.g. in the West Bank, Saudi, Jordan, and Lebanon), and I have been working with Palestinian-Americans in the US, Palestinian-Europeans in Europe, and Palestinians in Palestine to bootstrap projects to raise awareness, educate, agitate, and provide material support to the Palestinian people in Gaza and the West Bank. A couple examples: I connected a founder/investor in Canada with an outsourcing provider in Hebron to help the latter build out the payment processing system on his job platform. I am working with a finance person in the UK on setting up a platform to connect mentors with Gazans when the “war” is over.
Comments like “only 30k Palestinians have been killed”, suggesting there is more difference than overlap between Palestinian-Americans, Arab-Americans, and Muslim-Americans, not recognizing the overwhelming influence US funding and its unequivocal, unconditional, bi-partisan political support has on Israel’s military policy and behavior, and thinking that anyone in or connected to Palestine cares more about imagined future persecution in the US than about the actual, ongoing, real-time genocide of their friends and family is just astonishingly blinkered.
Comments like “only 30k Palestinians have been killed”
I don't mean to say that 30k isn't a lot of people. But objectively, it's nowhere close to being a majority of the population.
But you're apparently incredulous that things could be worse. There are millions of Palestinians, and you think a few tens of thousands of them dying is as bad as things could get? Around 1.5% of the population of Gaza dying is a lot in terms of deaths relative to both normal times and previous periods of Israeli reprisals against Gaza. But it's nowhere near the upper limit of how many people Israel could kill if people like Smotrich got their way.
The fact that that's your takeaway doesn't seem like a very serious attempt to consider what I'm saying.
It's apparently the height of callousness to you to note that genocide can be far, far worse than the death of 0.6% of Palestinians in the Palestinian territories and so there's a lot of room for Trump to make things worse.
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suggesting there is more difference than overlap between Palestinian-Americans, Arab-Americans, and Muslim-Americans
I'm not sure how you get that from what I said.
But now that you bring it up, you don't appear to be super familiar with the demographics of those groups if you think those groups have majority overlap. Only 24% of Arab-Americans are Muslim and only 26% of Muslim-Americans are Arab.
Palestinian-Americans are obviously almost all Arabs, but less than 10% of Arab-Americans are Palestinian heritage.
These are simple numbers, I don't know what your objection is here. You were first talking about Arab-Americans, and then talked about Palestinian-Americans, I was merely pointing out that these are different sets of people.
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not recognizing the overwhelming influence US funding and its unequivocal, unconditional, bi-partisan political support has on Israel’s military policy and behavior
It has an influence, sure.
But Netanyahu doesn't want the war to end because the majority of the Israeli public thinks he should resign once the war ends.
And Netanyahu wants Trump and the GOP to win, because Trump is more pro-Israel than Biden and the Democrats.
And a non-trivial number of people are acting as if Biden could cause Netanyahu to stop with a phone call, ergo anything that Israel does is with Biden's approval and the lack of a ceasefire is on him.
Therefore, what is Netanyahu's incentive in this case? If Biden cuts off Israel, Netanyahu merely has to continue the war as long as possible to both 1. preserve his power and 2. divide the Democratic coalition based off the belief that Biden is failing at reining Bibi in despite having the easy power to do so. This makes it easier for Trump to win, and would result in the GOP sending more funding after the election.
You think that if Israel loses 10% of their military funding, that this would mean that the IDF wouldn't still far outgun Gaza? You think that Israel would cease to have nukes which deter a massive response from other powers? Israel hasn't received any additional funding from the US since this started (Biden approved sales of weapons to Israel, which is not funding), yet they are able to continue.
It seems to me that Netanyahu's incentives would still be to continue the war as long as possible, ideally until after the election, while Biden would lose a lot of his leverage (including the very positive public opinion towards him within Israel).
And with all of these, the GOP would be trying to sabotage Biden's efforts. Israel is, in fact, aware of the party dynamics in the US. You can't pretend the GOP doesn't exist when accounting for how Israel will react to efforts from a Democrat.
Like your argument seems to be basically to assert that Biden can stop this with a phone call. But you don't bother making an argument about why that would work.
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and thinking that anyone in or connected to Palestine cares more about imagined future persecution in the US than about the actual, ongoing, real-time genocide of their friends and family is just astonishingly blinkered.
Thinking that anyone cares more about it? For one, I didn't say more. If you think Trump and Biden are equally bad on Palestine (they're not), you can still think that it's important for Biden to win because of his positions on other issues, including civil rights of Muslims and immigrants in the US.
But aside from that, I mean, you're the one now treating them as a monolithic group who all think the same. Your idea is that you have a read on what Arab-Americans all think based off interacting with a self-selected group of Palestine activists who have come together precisely because they have similar views? Therefore none of them would care about whether their country of birth remains a democracy while bad things are happening in Palestine?
I understand that Arab or Muslim Republicans are a minority, but given the long-standing position of the GOP on Israel and Trump's particular position, it's pretty much a guarantee that there are non-trivial number of Arab- and Muslim-Americans who prioritize things over Palestine, aside from ones who would recognize differences between Biden and Trump that make Biden worth supporting.
But still, your premise here is basically that Arabs born in the US will always prioritize their heritage country over America - or not even that, since for the vast majority of Arabs, Palestine is not even their heritage country. Normally, this kind of claim would be a right-wing-coded "enemy within" view. I'm merely suggesting that Arab- and Palestinian-Americans should care (and that many would care) about what happens in America, and you're somehow taking that as an offensive claim.
And given the actions that Trump indeed took during his first term, I don't think it's fair to say that it's all "imagined" either.
not recognizing the overwhelming influence US funding and its unequivocal, unconditional, bi-partisan political support has on Israel’s military policy and behavior,
Pre Oct 7th, yes absolutely. Post Oct 7th, no.
Israel is a totalitarian government and this was their 9/11, Israel is and was always going to destroy Gaza after this attack and no amount of sanctions, except putting actual troops on the border of Gaza and Israel will change that. This is all about whether it's easy for Israel to destroy Gaza or hard for Israel to destroy Gaza, but that is what is going to happen.
It would be like suggesting that after 9/11 the Iraqi war would have stopped if england refused to participate.
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Originally Posted by viscousmemories
and thinking that anyone in or connected to Palestine cares more about imagined future persecution in the US than about the actual, ongoing, real-time genocide of their friends and family is just astonishingly blinkered.
Yes I absolutely expect panicked people with loved ones in the way of danger to be short sighted like that, which is why it's up to leaders to understand survival is a long term goal.
If the fighting stopped today for good, but all borders were shut and all aid suspended because all bridges were burnt through hard ultimatums, would fewer people die?
I want to do something, this gun is something, so I used this gun, sure it made everything worse, but what do you expect me to do, just sit here and do nothing? I saw this so much with conspiracy theorists during the pandemic.
I know little about the conflict over the decades but I do know that the 1990s Joint Strike Fighter program not only included Israel as one of the recipients but when it first flew as the F-35 in 2006 Israel got their own special model designed to take their electronics, something offered to no one else. Israel was then the first to use the $1.7 trillion program in combat in 2018.
It's a little late to suddenly blame the current president for arming Israel. Like the many conservatives just now waking up to the billion we spend on the military industrial complex when told they cannot eat missiles, I'm glad she finally sees the perks Israel gets, but Biden isn't the mastermind of those perks.
I feel bad for her, but the threat of holding your breath till you turn blue only works by manipulating how much a parent cares about the child and the protective effects of autonomic breathing once passed out. It's a manipulative bluff because killing yourself to get your way once dead is a bad way of going about things.
Also Frankly, yes, I fully expect there are democrats that when given the choice of abandoning their weird end of the world christian cult view of Israel, or having another term of Trump would happily see Trump in office because it's not their ass he's going to go after.
Again, it's a politically hopeless and absurd position to expect ordinary people to just swallow their outrage rather than expect a massive, well funded and professional political machine to actually figure out how to build and maintain the political coalitions that people can see responding to the issues they're most passionate about.
If they can't keep their own long time activists on board, what hope is there for voters? Shouldn't the fucking Democrats be the ones considered responsible for the failure here?
I know little about the conflict over the decades but I do know that the 1990s Joint Strike Fighter program not only included Israel as one of the recipients but when it first flew as the F-35 in 2006 Israel got their own special model designed to take their electronics, something offered to no one else. Israel was then the first to use the $1.7 trillion program in combat in 2018.
It's a little late to suddenly blame the current president for arming Israel. Like the many conservatives just now waking up to the billion we spend on the military industrial complex when told they cannot eat missiles, I'm glad she finally sees the perks Israel gets, but Biden isn't the mastermind of those perks.
As you say, thinking this is a change in policy is just not having really paid attention/taken it seriously how Israel has been treated as our top Middle Eastern ally.
Biden did not promise to do what these people are asking, he campaigned on being friendly to Israel. I get being mad at him, but there's a big element of acting like he lied to them or something. If you expected that Biden would execute a quick turn against Israel immediately after they suffered the worst attack on their soil in decades, I dunno what to tell you.
I think it's past due for Biden to take a harder line against Netanyahu - certainly if he doesn't achieve a ceasefire in the next week as he predicted yesterday - but the US was never going to turn against a decades-long ally that easily...
(This is also true of John Fetterman, who never ran on an anti-Israel stance, people just assumed because he endorsed Bernie and thus became "the candidate of the left" that he agreed with them on these things, but he was open and explicit about his support for Israel during his senate campaign.)
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The bolded parts are, of course, in significant tension.
According to her (and others claiming Biden has lost their votes forever), the damage is done and he will not gain many votes by turning hard against Israel... So what's the risk, now, of him continuing with the current policy? If she and others declare that Democrats should just write them off, why would they be surprised if that's what happens?
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Originally Posted by fragment
Again, it's a politically hopeless and absurd position to expect ordinary people to just swallow their outrage rather than expect a massive, well funded and professional political machine to actually figure out how to build and maintain the political coalitions that people can see responding to the issues they're most passionate about.
If they can't keep their own long time activists on board, what hope is there for voters? Shouldn't the fucking Democrats be the ones considered responsible for the failure here?
The problem is that this assumes there are only two groups that matter here. The Democrats and the pro-Palestine activists/voters.
But there are also pro-Israel activists/voters, people who don't care much either way, people who are pro-Israel but still sympathetic to Palestinians, Republican politicians, Netanyahu and Israeli hardliners who want to hold out for the possibility of a Trump victory, etc.
Suppose for a moment that
1. Trump would be worse on Palestine and
2. Biden would lose more votes than he would gain if he gave this woman enough of what she wanted to win her vote back.
What would be the right move for Biden in that case? To me, it seems that the right move, even if you want to help Palestine, would be to write her off and concentrate on winning over other voters because Trump winning would make things worse.
I'm not saying that IS the case, but the big dilemma for Democrats with the I/P issue right now is that it splits Democrats, but unites Republicans. A much larger majority of Republicans support Israel, whereas Democrats are split to a greater degree.
I think Netanyahu has turned a large part of the US public against their response and they think they should pull back significantly, but that doesn't mean they endorse everything the pro-Palestine activists want. And certainly NOT if Biden had made those moves back in October like many of them wanted! So it doesn't necessarily mean they think Israel should simply stop without requiring any concessions from Hamas, which is what some pro-Palestine activists are calling for.
But it's a politically difficult issue for Democrats in a way that it isn't for Republicans. And the specifics of what's in a ceasefire and other moves matter. A lot of people are complaining about the US selling Israel weapons. Well, that's not a ceasefire, and that's not merely not passing more aid for Israel, or even cutting off aid. That's implicitly asking for an embargo against Israel. Is that a vote winner? Is there some way for Biden to do that and build a winning coalition?
The problem is that this assumes there are only two groups that matter here. The Democrats and the pro-Palestine activists/voters.
No it doesn't. For a start it was a general statement that could be applied to trans rights as much as Palestine. Second, I specifically wrote about building coalitions, which necessarily are made up of people who differ in their priorities.
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Suppose for a moment that
As I mentioned in an earlier post, this kind of thing places the onus on the people in the worst positions, rather than those who have some actual power and influence. Both morally reprehensible and tactically stupid if you want to get people on side.
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What would be the right move for Biden in that case? To me, it seems that the right move, even if you want to help Palestine, would be to write her off and concentrate on winning over other voters because Trump winning would make things worse.
Right, so in that case the Biden campaign makes the political calculation that many supporters of Palestinians should be written off in order to get other voters. Why the fuck should those Palestinian supporters respect such a move and commit to voting for Biden then?
Also, why is it the Palestinian supporters who earn so much criticism as if they're the only ones making this calculation supposedly necessary? Where's the critique at those not willing to stand up against horrific human rights abuses?
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I'm not saying that IS the case, but the big dilemma for Democrats with the I/P issue right now is that it splits Democrats, but unites Republicans.
But it's a politically difficult issue for Democrats in a way that it isn't for Republicans.
I keep reading how limited by political realities Biden is on various issues from the same people who say that Trump will be virtually unconstrained, so criticism of Biden must be muted at best lest he lose support. I get that there are real asymmetries but surely there are points at which applying political pressure to the not-quite-as-bad guy is both necessary and effective.
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everything the pro-Palestine activists want
Who says it's either-or? Taking a slightly stronger stance would win back some potential voters, some will never be convinced no matter what. There's a bunch of political room for Biden to maneuver in between the recent weak sauce and "everything activists want".
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Is there some way for Biden to do that and build a winning coalition?
My point is that if the Biden campaign wants the votes of people who care about Palestinians, it's their own damn job to figure out how to build that coalition. Not that of despairing and disgusted people trying to decide how hard they're willing to squeeze their noses while voting.
The problem is that this assumes there are only two groups that matter here. The Democrats and the pro-Palestine activists/voters.
No it doesn't. For a start it was a general statement that could be applied to trans rights as much as Palestine. Second, I specifically wrote about building coalitions, which necessarily are made up of people who differ in their priorities.
When there are people who are single issue voters, or people who are declaring that they will never vote for you, there are coalitions that are not possible, at least while that issue is salient.
Obviously a bunch of people voted for Biden in 2020 when his support for Israel was less salient and are now less willing to when it's more salient. But Biden doesn't really have control over whether Israel-Palestine will be salient in November.
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Suppose for a moment that
As I mentioned in an earlier post, this kind of thing
The thing where you have to consider trade offs and the fact that the right-wing exists and defeating them is important, including for this issue?
Like, asking you to consider this scenario isn't saying what the distribution of "onus" is. But you're just outright saying you're not going to respond to that scenario - not by arguing that it's not plausible, but that it's "wrong" to think about it.
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Both morally reprehensible and tactically stupid if you want to get people on side.
I'm not in control of what Americans think, or what American politicians as a class do. Most Americans do not agree with you or me. A large portion of Americans want to vote for the other guy, and he's running on banning Muslim immigrants and deporting pro-Palestine protesters, among other things.
If you're going to vote in the US election and you want things to get better in Palestine, and you're voting on that basis, that's the situation. If you also have thoughts about other issues (which you ought to, as horrible as what's happening in Gaza is, it is not the sum total of the world. Like, I seem to recall people talking about climate change in existential terms...) you have to weigh those too. I'm not saying this is a great situation and it is the way it ought to be.
But saying, well, ok, you don't want to vote for Biden, then you shouldn't, and if Trump wins and bad things happen, oh well, it would've been "morally reprehensible" to suggest maybe you should vote against Trump.
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What would be the right move for Biden in that case? To me, it seems that the right move, even if you want to help Palestine, would be to write her off and concentrate on winning over other voters because Trump winning would make things worse.
Right, so in that case the Biden campaign makes the political calculation that many supporters of Palestinians should be written off in order to get other voters. Why the fuck should those Palestinian supporters respect such a move and commit to voting for Biden then?
We're talking about people who have declared they're never voting for Biden, or who are saying they're only willing to do so if he adopts positions that are electoral poison.
I would not say they should vote for Biden because he has written them off. I would say that they should consider voting for Biden and try to pressure him on the basis that improving things will earn him goodwill, rather than declaring that they are unwinnable.
If you declare yourself unwinnable then the campaign writing you off as a lost cause is the correct move. You can't declare yourself a lost cause and then get mad that they believe you!
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Also, why is it the Palestinian supporters who earn so much criticism as if they're the only ones making this calculation supposedly necessary?
Because that's what we're talking about right now.
For someone who got a little huffy at my pointing out that Democrats have to consider how other voters and politicians will react - well, you didn't mention them. Why is it that you didn't mention them?
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Where's the critique at those not willing to stand up against horrific human rights abuses?
Is there an interesting conversation to be had if I go around picking out deranged pro-Israel tweets or finding pro-Israel demonstrations that downplay or praise the death count in Gaza? It seems there's pretty strong agreement here.
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I'm not saying that IS the case, but the big dilemma for Democrats with the I/P issue right now is that it splits Democrats, but unites Republicans.
No, you could not have said the same thing in 2012. Democrats were supermajority in favor, Republicans were supermajority against, independents were in favor.
You could have said the same thing about it in 2004, which is when the GOP successfully used it as a wedge issue.
If you're trying to use it as some sort of a gotcha, that I wouldn't subject my own issues as a gay person to the same analysis... Kerry and Obama didn't run on supporting gay marriage in 2004 or 2008, and guess who the fuck I voted for in those elections, without hesitation.
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But it's a politically difficult issue for Democrats in a way that it isn't for Republicans.
I keep reading how limited by political realities Biden is on various issues from the same people who say that Trump will be virtually unconstrained
I get that you're in New Zealand, but I still expect more understanding of what the fuck you're talking about if you're going to interject so forcefully on US politics.
1. Trump will not be legally eligible for a third term, so popular opinion will obviously be less relevant to him when he has no future elections to consider than BEFORE the election.
2. The Republicans have captured the courts in a way that Democrats have not.
3. The Republicans have a propaganda apparatus that the Democrats do not have.
4. The fact that Trump does not respect the rule of law and has courts backing up his lawlessness does not imply that Biden can or should therefore toss out the law.
There is no contradiction between saying that Trump will be dangerously unconstrained after he is elected and saying that Biden, who is currently UP for election, is constrained by political realities.
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but surely there are points at which applying political pressure to the not-quite-as-bad guy is both necessary and effective.
Sure. But I was talking about whether Biden is worth voting for, and also criticizing people whose idea of pressuring him is saying that they'll never vote for him. I wasn't talking about whether you should be pressuring him at all.
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everything the pro-Palestine activists want
Who says it's either-or?
Not me.
But people who are saying "I'll never vote for Biden", or "He has to call for an unconditional ceasefire before I will even consider talking to Democrats" are making demands of that sort.
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Taking a slightly stronger stance would win back some potential voters, some will never be convinced no matter what. There's a bunch of political room for Biden to maneuver in between the recent weak sauce and "everything activists want".
Sure. But I wasn't talking about people who are taking more moderate stances.
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Is there some way for Biden to do that and build a winning coalition?
My point is that if the Biden campaign wants the votes of people who care about Palestinians, it's their own damn job to figure out how to build that coalition. Not that of despairing and disgusted people trying to decide how hard they're willing to squeeze their noses while voting.
1. Voting is a civic duty and when you vote, you should be voting for the better outcome (and no, that doesn't mean voting for a sure loser like Jill Stein or Cornel West, I mean voting among the candidates who could plausibly be elected).
That doesn't mean that Biden has no responsibility, and I never said that. But just because Biden's responsibility is far greater than any individual voter doesn't mean that voters therefore have no responsibility as you are suggesting.
And no, it's not that ordinarily voters have some responsibility, but you suddenly have no responsibility if you are in an emotional state.
How much blame you get might be ameliorated, but you still have some responsibility. I'm not going to say, oh ok, vote for Trump because you're upset, that's ok to do. Some Palestinian-Americans are saying that's what they're going to do. Sorry, but no, that's stupid and bad.
Should Joe Biden say the things I'm saying? No. But I'm not a politician and I'm not even canvassing in Dearborn or some shit.
2. This shit about being "despairing and disgusted" and "squeez[ing your] nose" when voting is just so... overdramatic.
When you vote it does not mean a total endorsement. It does not mean you have to defend them forever.
It just means you thought they would be better than the alternative.
I am not obligated to respect the notion that voting for someone less-than-ideal is some horrible sacrifice. Get over yourselves. Voting is about the country, not about you, specifically.
Trump is more pro-Israel than Biden and the Democrats.
Biden was on Seth Myers a couple nights ago proudly proclaiming that he is a Zionist, but Trump is somehow more pro-Israel?
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And a non-trivial number of people are acting as if Biden could cause Netanyahu to stop with a phone call, ergo anything that Israel does is with Biden's approval and the lack of a ceasefire is on him.
The US has vetoed three ceasefire resolutions. Are you suggesting those vetoes were against Biden’s wishes?
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Like your argument seems to be basically to*assert*that Biden can stop this with a phone call. But you don't bother making an argument about*why*that would work.
What fucking dissembling nonsense. I have pointed out repeatedly that the leader of the free world has firmly and publicly offered unconditional support for Israel during a genocidal campaig, blocked every attempt the UN has made to call for a ceasefire, dismissed South Africa’s claims at the ICJ hearings as without merit, etc. etc. etc. and you interpret that as me saying I think Biden can make Netanyahu stop with a phone call?
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If you think Trump and Biden are equally bad on Palestine (they're not)
Show your work.
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But aside from that, I mean, you're the one now treating them as a monolithic group who all think the same.
Please give me a fucking break with pretending you give a single shit about the individuality and agency of Arab-Americans. It’s no more believable than your feigned concern for the Uyghurs. It is a fact that most Arabs, Palestinians, Muslims, etc. abhor the genocide of the Palestinians. That you would suggest only a “self-selected” (presumably small) group who are involved in activism care enough to be deeply affected by it just reveals your own cynicism.
It's a little late to suddenly blame the current president for arming Israel.
I didn't see the claim that Biden was responsible for arming Israel in the snippet you quoted, but I will certainly blame Biden for continuing to arm Israel as it commits genocide, and in my fantasy world he would answer to the Hague for it.
And no, I am not claiming that Biden personally builds and delivers armaments to Netanyahu on the back of a donkey, so let's nip that accusation in the bud before it comes.
Briefly, because I don't have time to deal with the whole post
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Originally Posted by erimir
No, you could not have said the same thing in 2012. Democrats were supermajority in favor, Republicans were supermajority against, independents were in favor.
Trump is more pro-Israel than Biden and the Democrats.
Biden was on Seth Myers a couple nights ago proudly proclaiming that he is a Zionist, but Trump is somehow more pro-Israel?
Yes?
And the feelings of the parties as a whole are important too, because they're more receptive to what their parties want.
Trump doesn't use the same terminology because Trump never bothers learning anything and he doesn't have a well-formed ideology for the most part anyway. But he and Netanyahu are political allies, and he won't try to push Netanyahu to allow in humanitarian aid or reduce casualties. He cut aid to Palestine, he recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, he has said he wants to deport pro-Palestine protesters. Members of his party want to ban all Palestinians from entering the country. He has a settlement in the Golan Heights named after him for a reason.
Do you think that the word "Zionist" is more important than looking at what their specific policies and positions are? I mean it's the entirety of your rebuttal here, but I won't assume.
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And a non-trivial number of people are acting as if Biden could cause Netanyahu to stop with a phone call, ergo anything that Israel does is with Biden's approval and the lack of a ceasefire is on him.
The US has vetoed three ceasefire resolutions. Are you suggesting those vetoes were against Biden’s wishes?
Would a UN ceasefire resolution force Netanyahu to do anything? Isn't it just a call for a ceasefire with no enforcement mechanisms? And the resolutions didn't address the hostage situation either, right?
I'm not saying I agree with the vetoes, but if UN condemnation was going to stop Israel wouldn't they have already stopped?
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Like your argument seems to be basically to*assert*that Biden can stop this with a phone call. But you don't bother making an argument about*why*that would work.
What fucking dissembling nonsense. I have pointed out repeatedly that the leader of the free world has firmly and publicly offered unconditional support for Israel during a genocidal campaig, blocked every attempt the UN has made to call for a ceasefire, dismissed South Africa’s claims at the ICJ hearings as without merit, etc. etc. etc. and you interpret that as me saying I think Biden can make Netanyahu stop with a phone call?
You're saying that the US is the "only reason" that Netanyahu is continuing.
So lay out the mechanics of what Biden you think Biden should do and why Netanyahu would then stop, then.
What you've offered here does not constitute an explanation of that.
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If you think Trump and Biden are equally bad on Palestine (they're not)
Show your work.
That's fucking rich coming from someone whose entire argument that Biden is just as bad or worse in this post is that Biden called himself a Zionist. Show your work. What does he mean by that term? How does it show that Biden is more pro-Israel or anti-Palestine than Trump?
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But aside from that, I mean, you're the one now treating them as a monolithic group who all think the same.
Please give me a fucking break with pretending you give a single shit about the individuality and agency of Arab-Americans.
I disagree with you, so I have to be some racist bigot, I guess.
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It’s no more believable than your feigned concern for the Uyghurs.
As opposed to your very real activism on their behalf, or something? What is the reason my concern is fake and how would it not apply to you on that issue?
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It is a fact that most Arabs, Palestinians, Muslims, etc. abhor the genocide of the Palestinians.
Did I say that most Arab-Americans or Muslim-Americans aren't pro-Palestine?
I think you're probably assuming a bit too much when it comes to Christian Arab-Americans, who I think are not as overwhelmingly on one side. Many of that group would be here in America essentially because they fled oppression by Muslims.
The depth of their commitment on the issue can certainly vary at any rate, even if they side with Palestine. The fact that the GOP is and has been firmly pro-Israel for decades yet a not at all trivial minority of Arab and Muslim voters have been GOP voters the whole time suggests they don't necessarily prioritize that issue.
And there's also a lot of room for people to identify as pro-Palestine without sharing all your views. Remember, the original claims I was taking issue with were: that there were no significant differences between what Trump and Biden would do for "their people" and that they would prioritize that (where "their people" is defined as Palestinians in Palestine, apparently) over all other issues. (Or rather, if there is no difference, you can't merely have that as your top issue, you have to say that the other issues aren't even worth considering if that issue is not meeting some threshold. Your argument seemed to be that even if they concede that Trump will be worse in every other way, they wouldn't "give a single shit" about that if Trump's not worse on Palestine.)
That's what I was taking issue with, not arguing that majorities of those groups don't abhor what Israel is doing in Gaza.
I had to go back and read the original quote, because of course with you it has to turn into saying that I don't give a single shit about people, accusing me of being a bigot, etc. because I'm arguing that the people you're interacting with aren't representative, that you're conflating groups that have significant differences AND that Americans (even ones who are Arab or Muslim or Palestinian!) should care about the end of democracy in their country. You turn that into somehow I was arguing that Arab-Americans as a group mostly don't care about Gaza or something, which is not something I ever said. You seem to have a tendency to black-and-white thinking because this is a pattern with you.
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That you would suggest only a “self-selected” (presumably small) group who are involved in activism care enough to be deeply affected by it just reveals your own cynicism.
That's not what I said.
What I was getting at is that your self-selected group is guaranteed to be much more monolithic in opinion than the overall group.
Like I said, a non-trivial portion of those groups are Trump voters! Have you met any who are Trump voters, given how ensconced you are in the Arab-American community? You're complaining that I'm saying your experience is not a representative sample.
Briefly, because I don't have time to deal with the whole post
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Originally Posted by erimir
No, you could not have said the same thing in 2012. Democrats were supermajority in favor, Republicans were supermajority against, independents were in favor.
This is not the only poll, and others found stronger support among independents. Republicans also had a significant minority in favor, which you left out. Because the point was that gay marriage did not split Democrats more than it split Republicans.
This is again, one poll. It doesn't explain everything that is meant by "permanent ceasefire". I see it has a follow-up question that shows support goes up if it says that means that Hamas releases all the hostages. The numbers on the question specifying that the ceasefire would not mean the defeat of Hamas are a fair bit lower. Presumably, we can infer that if the scenario were instead that not only is Hamas not defeated, but they won't even release all of the hostages, they would be lower still. Those differences matter because as of yet, Hamas has appeared fairly unwilling to release all hostages, and certainly not merely in exchange for a halt in hostilities.
Aside from that, I think Biden has waited too long to rebuke Netanyahu. But I don't know what's going on with the negotiations behind the scenes.
But we're also talking about the entirety of the US response. I was talking about the generic question of who you are more sympathetic to, Israel or Palestine. And on that question for a while, Republicans have been much more united than Democrats (Republicans being overwhelmingly in support of Israel). Maybe that's changing, but that's the underlying sympathy, who they think is more right on the overall question. The Israel-Palestine issue as a whole is one that is more of a wedge for Democrats than Republicans (at least in the past 10 years).
And on the ceasefire question specifically, you would not find numbers anywhere near that in polls from late October. The numbers took a while to get to that level.
If you're saying that this is a change in the situation, then ok, I agree that the politics of the issue of the current conflict are changing and would have agreed with that earlier as well. Back in October, I was saying that Israel was making mistakes that would waste the sympathy they got after Oct 7, so this is not surprising to me.
Re: Standing With Israel and Condemning Hamas
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