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  #201  
Old 02-29-2024, 10:59 PM
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Default Re: Standing With Israel and Condemning Hamas

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Originally Posted by erimir View Post
So you have not proven your point.
By all means provide polling evidence for your assertion that public support for marriage equality around the time Obama came out in support was so different from public support for US taking a stronger line on Gaza ceasefire right now that comparing the two is not useful or appropriate.

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Republicans also had a significant minority in favor, which you left out. Because the point was that gay marriage did not split Democrats more than it split Republicans.
Left out because I thought we were discussing potential Biden voters.

But the figures are:
Gay marriage supporting Repubs 2012: 24%
Gaza ceasefire supporting Repubs 2024: 56%

Looking across all the questions asked on Israel/Palestine, the Republican responses are surprisingly split. I would have expected much more unity than this poll has. Which may speak badly of the poll, but again, I'd rather look at evidence than assertions on that.

I'd guess ceasefire supporting Republicans are not very likely to vote Biden, or at least not vote, because of this issue though. But I'd guess the same for the marriage equality supporting ones in 2012.
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  #202  
Old 02-29-2024, 11:23 PM
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Default Re: Standing With Israel and Condemning Hamas

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Aside from that, I think Biden has waited too long to rebuke Netanyahu. But I don't know what's going on with the negotiations behind the scenes.
I honestly find your faith in what you imagine about negotiations quite startling.

Negotiating with Netanyahu (and his Govt) is obviously like negotiating with Republicans on bipartisan immigration policies, or the debt ceiling, or whatever. He'll use negotiations as a tactic to delay and water down action then just withdraw from the agreement. He is as trustworthy and will act in as good faith as Putin, ffs.
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  #203  
Old 02-29-2024, 11:28 PM
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Default Re: Standing With Israel and Condemning Hamas

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Originally Posted by fragment View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by erimir View Post
So you have not proven your point.
By all means provide polling evidence for your assertion that public support for marriage equality around the time Obama came out in support was so different from public support for US taking a stronger line on Gaza ceasefire right now that comparing the two is not useful or appropriate.

Quote:
Republicans also had a significant minority in favor, which you left out. Because the point was that gay marriage did not split Democrats more than it split Republicans.
Left out because I thought we were discussing potential Biden voters.

But the figures are:
Gay marriage supporting Repubs 2012: 24%
Public opinion of same-sex marriage in the United States - Wikipedia

For example, CNN had a poll with splits:

Dems: 70-28
Indies: 60-37
Repubs: 23-72

Similar splits in the two parties, with a clear majority of indies. That doesn't look especially risky.
Quote:
Gaza ceasefire supporting Repubs 2024: 56%

Looking across all the questions asked on Israel/Palestine, the Republican responses are surprisingly split. I would have expected much more unity than this poll has. Which may speak badly of the poll, but again, I'd rather look at evidence than assertions on that.

I'd guess ceasefire supporting Republicans are not very likely to vote Biden, or at least not vote, because of this issue though. But I'd guess the same for the marriage equality supporting ones in 2012.
I think the points I made about the conditions of the ceasefire significantly affecting support are relevant here.

There's no point in talking about what support for a ceasefire in the abstract is if the support for a ceasefire which leaves Hamas in control of Gaza and does not require them to release all hostages will have far lower support, which that poll supports thinking. If you're calling for an immediate ceasefire with no pre-conditions, that is your benchmark.

Most people are in favor of peace in the abstract, but without details of the agreement included in the discussion it's not very useful because there won't be a ceasefire in abstract, there will only be one with specific conditions.

And "calling for a ceasefire" is not the same as achieving one. Also not included in the poll is any "ceasefire... or what?" What do Americans support Biden doing if Israel and/or Hamas don't agree?

Regardless, I certainly agree that the politics are getting worse for Israel the longer this goes on and I never disagreed with that.
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  #204  
Old 03-01-2024, 12:07 AM
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Default Re: Standing With Israel and Condemning Hamas

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Originally Posted by erimir View Post
For example, CNN had a poll with splits:

Dems: 70-28 net +42
Indies: 60-37 net +23
Repubs: 23-72 net -49

Similar splits in the two parties, with a clear majority of indies. That doesn't look especially risky.
(net figures added)

Let's compare with the "ceasefire right now" question i.e. without defeating Hamas or hostage release.

Dems: 63-22 net +41
Indies: 53-29 net +24
Repubs: 34-52 net -18

The net difference is near identical for each of these two polls for Dems and Indies. The Repubs are more split on ceasefire than they were on gay marriage. At least on this poll. Still open to other polling evidence, since this is actually quite surprising.

Quote:
And "calling for a ceasefire" is not the same as achieving one.
I agree just calling for a ceasefire is a very weak action that nonetheless the Biden admin has not taken. In fact, they won't take the even weaker action of not vetoing a UNSC vote.
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  #205  
Old 03-01-2024, 12:26 AM
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Default Re: Standing With Israel and Condemning Hamas

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Originally Posted by fragment View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by erimir View Post
For example, CNN had a poll with splits:

Dems: 70-28 net +42
Indies: 60-37 net +23
Repubs: 23-72 net -49

Similar splits in the two parties, with a clear majority of indies. That doesn't look especially risky.
(net figures added)

Let's compare with the "ceasefire right now" question i.e. without defeating Hamas or hostage release.

Dems: 63-22 net +41
Indies: 53-29 net +24
Repubs: 34-52 net -18

The net difference is near identical for each of these two polls for Dems and Indies. The Repubs are more split on ceasefire than they were on gay marriage. At least on this poll. Still open to other polling evidence, since this is actually quite surprising.
The question only specifies "without defeating Hamas".

Hearing that question wording would not be taken by all respondents as meaning without a full hostage release or even, potentially, without any hostage release. And many wouldn't think about that aspect unless it was specified.

Basically, you cannot use that question to answer a different question. But I think it's reasonable to think that if support drops significantly if you specify the Israelis don't get a big ask (getting rid of Hamas altogether) that it would drop even more if you specify that the Israelis don't even get a much smaller concession (releasing the hostages).

And none of that really changes the fact that Republican voters are overwhelmingly more sympathetic to Israel than Palestine, while that is not the case in the Democratic party, which is why I said the "Israel-Palestine issue", not "calling for a ceasefire". That is why this whole thing has been a clusterfuck for the Democratic side, while Trump has almost no issues with being criticized by his side over the issue! (He did initially step in it because Bibi said some nice things about Biden, and that made him angry.)
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Originally Posted by erimir View Post
I'm not saying that IS the case, but the big dilemma for Democrats with the I/P issue right now is that it splits Democrats, but unites Republicans. A much larger majority of Republicans support Israel, whereas Democrats are split to a greater degree.
At any rate, as I've already said, things are changing. Also, I think it's clear that Biden is trying to achieve a ceasefire.
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  #206  
Old 03-04-2024, 06:45 PM
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Default Re: Standing With Israel and Condemning Hamas

From Gallup's new poll.

This is what I'm talking about when I say this is a much more difficult issue for Democrats than it is for Republicans.



My a margin of 43-35, Democrats sympathize more with the Palestinians (before 2023 in Gallup's data, Democrats sympathized more with Israel, and by large margins before 2019). Republicans, on the other hand, almost monolithically sympathize with Israel, by a margin 80 to a mere 7%. Since Republicans are much more in agreement, it's easier to keep everyone happy. Indies are split, but like Israel more (and Democrats do probably need to win independents to win the election).

And a useful question to put it in perspective some of the other results you see:

"In order to resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, do you think the United States should -- [ROTATED: put more pressure on the Palestinians to make the necessary compromises (or) put more pressure on the Israelis to make the necessary compromises]?"

The result for this is 39-36 that the pressure should be on Palestine (numbers are getting worse for Israel though). That's something to keep in mind when you see a question about whether there should be a ceasefire, because I'm guessing those numbers correlate with why those respondents think they haven't negotiated one yet.

There are undoubtedly people who would like to see a ceasefire, and would respond yes to those questions, but who think that the problem is that the Palestinians won't make a deal. Like I was saying, the terms of the ceasefire are important. Not everybody thinks that the problem is that Israel is intransigent. Some people think that the reason there isn't a ceasefire is that 1. Hamas broke the first ceasefire 2. Hamas won't release the hostages, or even information about the hostages 3. Hamas has unreasonable demands.

You can disagree, but it's still the case that someone who thinks those things could say "I'm in favor of a ceasefire" - so you can't just assume they support a ceasefire under the same terms you do.

This is a problem often with issue polling - because very different views can get conflated (e.g. "do you approve of Obamacare?" without differentiating between "I disapprove because it doesn't go far enough" and "I disapprove because it's COMMIE SOCIALISMSSMSMS!").
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  #207  
Old 03-05-2024, 06:28 PM
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Default Re: Standing With Israel and Condemning Hamas

And Trump endorses Israel continuing the assault on Gaza. He says "You've got to finish the problem."

Presumably this means until Hamas is wiped out, rather than Gazans, but the phrasing does have some Hitler-y vibes.

Last edited by erimir; 03-06-2024 at 05:37 PM.
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  #208  
Old 03-07-2024, 11:00 PM
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Default Re: Standing With Israel and Condemning Hamas

Oh hey look, it's Trump's ambassador to Israel with a bold new peace plan: Israel annexes the West Bank but doesn't give Palestinians the right to vote!

It's time to make Judea and Samaria great again - opinion - The Jerusalem Post

I don't think this is what Trump would campaign on. But these are the type of people he's chosen before and will have his ear.
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  #209  
Old 03-08-2024, 01:12 PM
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Default Re: Standing With Israel and Condemning Hamas

Okay, I concede that a Trump admin would result in much worse Israel policy. You win.

Back to the topic of this thread, any thoughts about the genocide happening in Gaza?
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  #210  
Old 03-08-2024, 04:37 PM
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Default Re: Standing With Israel and Condemning Hamas

From my POV, I think Biden should be putting more pressure on Israel because Netanyahu is not his friend or our friend. But I concede that I don't know what's going on behind the scenes.

I do think that Hamas refusing to entertain releasing all the hostages and refusing to even provide an update on the status of the hostages is not helping. (It's probably because a lot of them are already dead.) I think it would be good for the Palestinians if they just released them all, because it would significantly damage Israel's case for continuing in the eyes of the international community (and in particular, the US). But they won't, because Hamas thinks more Palestinian deaths are good for them.

I think it's good that Biden's going further to get aid into Gaza.

I'm not sure what can be done to get Netanyahu out of office, since I don't know enough about Israeli internal politics, but it strikes me that that is probably a pre-condition for getting Israel to agree to a reasonable deal.

I don't have your confidence that Biden can easily change the internal politics in Israel to eliminate Netanyahu's incentive to continue what he's doing.

The one thing I could say for cutting off military aid and sales, if Biden could do that, is that it might make Netanyahu's position untenable and force him out. But this would probably require implicitly (or explicitly, behind the scenes) the understanding that aid would come back once Netanyahu is gone, which you would probably disapprove of. But cutting off Israel, rather than cutting off Netanyahu, might not result in the desired reaction.
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  #211  
Old 03-09-2024, 03:09 PM
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Default Re: Standing With Israel and Condemning Hamas

Here is a quote from the aggressively pro-Israel The New Republic

Quote:
We may have achieved minor gains on humanitarian issues but at what cost? Nearly 30,000 Palestinians are dead. More will die if a ground operation in Rafah is launched, as appears to be imminent. Tens of thousands are at risk of starvation or disease. Israel’s abuses in Gaza are among the worst we have seen in recent history—far worse in terms of civilian toll than even Russia’s war crimes in Ukraine. And all of this is, undeniably, uncomfortably and, indeed, shamefully, being enabled by the United States. - source

Further on the differences between Trump and Biden on future Israel policy for anyone not yet convinced.

It’s worth watching the whole interview with historian Rashid Khalidi, author of The Hundred Year’s War on Palestine, on The Majority Report:
Quote:
We're not seeing a war of the Israeli Army alone on Gaza. Every shell fired by Israeli Amat tanks is a 120 millimeter artillery shell that the United States is providing. Every 155 millimeter artillery shell is provided by the United States. Every Hellfire missile, every war plane in the Israeli Arsenal is an American War plane, every helicopter, Apache helicopter, is an American Helicopter. The United States is providing these things in my view in violation of US law. They have to be used for defensive purposes, they can't be used in ways that contravene International humanitarian law or human rights, and so this blank check is in effect makes this an American-Israeli War; this is Biden's War, not just Netanyahu's war. - Rashid Khalidi
I have become a big John Mearsheimer fanboy lately and watch every interview and lecture I can find on YouTube, in addition to having bought four of his books. I’m more than halfway through The Israel Lobby and it is a masterpiece. It was published almost 15 years ago and won him predictable accusations of antisemitism, but fortunately there’s a whole chapter on how and why the lobby has weaponized that accusation. Something he said in a recent interview was that he wasn’t convinced there was a genocide going on in Gaza until after the 5-day truce in November, but the gusto with which Israel resumed its offensive following the truce convinced him.

Here’s a little information about how US military aid is helping support the genocide, and why I believe the Biden administration is complicit. (via the AM Quickie)

Quote:
U.S. Has Sent More Than 100 Weapons Shipments to Israel Since Oct. 7, But Disclosed Only 2*"'That's an extraordinary number of [arms] sales over the course of a pretty short amount of time, which really strongly suggests that*the Israeli campaign*would not be sustainable without this level of*U.S. support,' said Jeremy Konyndyk, a former senior Biden administration official and current president of Refugees International." via*the Washington Post*and*the Guardian.
This was reiterated by Josh Paul, the guy whose job for the past decade was to approve arms transfers for the State Department, during a webinar I watched on Thursday night. He resigned two weeks into Israel’s assault on Gaza not simply because the US continued to transfer arms, but because (in his words) there was an unprecedented intolerance for any debate or dissent on the issue from the outset.

I also thought this exchange was interesting. Of course the subject is Palestinian opinion, not specifically Palestinian-American opinion, but I think the essence of it is relevant to my earlier claims that for some, probably many, what is happening now is a bridge too far.

Quote:
Ali Abunimah: “We see a lot of arguments about this going backwards and forwards, and saying well you know, Biden is terrible but Trump would be an even bigger disaster. I can tell you from the perspective of Palestinians, there's nothing worse than genocide, genocide is as bad as it gets, and it's the worst case scenario now. Does it matter who people vote for when it comes to these questions?

Prof. Mearsheimer: “From a Palestinian perspective, no. It’s Tweedledee and Tweedledum. The President will provide unconditional support for Israel whether he or she is a Democrat or a Republican, so I just don't think it matters.” - source
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  #212  
Old 03-12-2024, 09:25 PM
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Default Re: Standing With Israel and Condemning Hamas

A guy called Avi Lewis. Worth a watch. Worth a share.
https://www.instagram.com/reel/C4L8tNJRp9z/

(I’d embed it properly if only I knew how)
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  #213  
Old 03-13-2024, 01:43 AM
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Default Re: Standing With Israel and Condemning Hamas


:wish:
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  #214  
Old 03-13-2024, 12:46 PM
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Default Re: Standing With Israel and Condemning Hamas

I have to admit this is one regime change I wouldn't begrudge the CIA orchestrating. It might even undo some of the decades of shit-sandwich that came from their removal of Mossadegh from Iran in '53.
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  #215  
Old 03-16-2024, 12:27 AM
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Default Re: Standing With Israel and Condemning Hamas

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Quote:
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I'd say, based on the general playbook from recent years, that they're going for a body count of about twenty thousand and squeeze in an ethnic cleansing of a fourth of the Gaza Strip before senile piece of shit Uncle Joe makes them stop.
Ah, remember the good ole’ days when that seemed like it might be an exaggeration?

More like wishful thinking, based on the silly assumption that the doddering numbskull would actually do that. My bad.
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  #216  
Old 03-19-2024, 05:11 PM
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Default Re: Standing With Israel and Condemning Hamas

Beating a dead horse here, but remember when people credulously believed Trump when he said he would be "neutral" between Israel and Palestine, and then he put this guy in charge of his "Middle East peace plan"?

Jared Kushner says Gaza's "waterfront property could be very valuable" | The Guardian
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Originally Posted by Guardian
“Gaza’s waterfront property could be very valuable … if people would focus on building up livelihoods,” Kushner told his interviewer, Harvard’s Middle East Initiative faculty chair, Prof Tarek Masoud. Kushner also lamented “all the money” that had gone into the territory’s tunnel network and munitions instead of education and innovation.

“It’s a little bit of an unfortunate situation there, but from Israel’s perspective I would do my best to move the people out and then clean it up,” Kushner said. “But I don’t think that Israel has stated that they don’t want the people to move back there afterwards.”

Masoud replied that there was “a lot to talk about there”.

Kushner also said he thinks Israel should move civilians from Gaza to the Negev desert in southern Israel.

He said that if he were in charge of Israel his number one priority would be getting civilians out of the southern city of Rafah, and that “with diplomacy” it could be possible to get them into Egypt.

“But in addition to that, I would just bulldoze something in the Negev, I would try to move people in there,” he said. “I think that’s a better option, so you can go in and finish the job.”
[...]
Asked by Masoud about fears on the part of Arabs in the region that the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, would not allow Palestinians who flee Gaza to return, Kushner paused and then said: “Maybe.

He went on to say: “I am not sure there is much left of Gaza at this point. If you think about even the construct, Gaza was not really a historical precedent [sic]. It was the result of a war. You had tribes in different places and then Gaza became a thing. Egypt used to run it and then over time different governments came in.”

Responding to a question about whether the Palestinians should have their own state, Kushner described the proposal as “a super bad idea” that “would essentially be rewarding an act of terror”.
Meanwhile,
Quote:
Asked what his message to Netanyahu would be, Trump says, “I think you have to finish it up, and do it quickly and get back to the world of peace.”
This is for some reason being reported as if he's suggesting that Netanyahu should make peace quickly, rather than finish off Hamas quickly, which have very different implications for civilians.

Given Trump's own lack of concern for civilian casualties from US operations (ending the reporting of drone strike casualties, for example), we can pretty much figure what level of care he thinks that finishing Hamas up quickly should entail.
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  #217  
Old 03-20-2024, 12:13 PM
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Default Re: Standing With Israel and Condemning Hamas

Yeah, I saw that Kushner piece and my stomach turned. I also heard the audio of Trump (who I've heard called "the front runner") being interviewed by Seb Gorka, in which Trump said Shumer and the Democrats "hate Israel" because they've finally started to mew about maybe asking Netanyahu to please kill fewer children and consider taking steps to avert a famine. These next few years are certainly going to be interesting times.
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  #218  
Old 03-20-2024, 09:32 PM
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Default Re: Standing With Israel and Condemning Hamas

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Asked what his message to Netanyahu would be, Trump says, “I think you have to finish it up, and do it quickly and get back to the world of peace.”
For a drug-addled rapist, PAB certainly is a piece of shit. Not sure what this "world of peace" we need to get back to is, but let us not forget:

Quote:
Peace is good for business.
~ Ferengi Rule of Acquisition No. 35

Also:

Quote:
War is good for business.
~ Ferengi Rule of Acquisition No. 34
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  #219  
Old 04-05-2024, 03:26 AM
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Default Re: Standing With Israel and Condemning Hamas

https://x.com/TheMossadIL/status/1775966371202949126
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  #220  
Old 04-05-2024, 04:32 PM
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Default Re: Standing With Israel and Condemning Hamas

I did see some twits saying that Trump understands, unlike Biden, that what Israel's doing looks bad on TV, and therefore Trump might put more pressure on Israel than Biden has been (which hasn't been enough, although at least he's moving in the right direction, however slowly).

The problem such twittery always has is that it assumes that Trump has a normal mind, which would think "destroying neighborhoods looks bad on TV, therefore Israel should stop doing that." Sure, Trump can be concerned with the appearance of bad behavior - but he's only concerned with the appearance of bad behavior, the bad behavior itself doesn't bother him. You should never say something so stupid without first remembering this is a guy who praises the Tiananmen Square massacre as being strong and smart. So, Trump's mind instead goes "therefore Israel shouldn't let video of that be released."



I think you can probably guess whether Trump therefore thinks it's horrible or "smart" for Israel to kill journalists given that line of thinking.
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  #221  
Old 05-02-2024, 03:33 AM
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Default Re: Standing With Israel and Condemning Hamas

From "The Nation"
https://www.thenation.com/article/ac...ice-brutality/
Quote:
New York City Council member Chi Ossé summed the scene up well, tweeting, “Tonight in the United States of America, we are witnessing a militarized police force, funded by NYC taxpayers, arresting American students in the name of a foreign country that’s carrying out a genocide.”
My little old heart is beating faster. I'm reminded of the old days, when people began to stand up against the Re-Colonization of the Southeast Asian nations, just newly freed from French Colonial Rule, began aligning themselves with the Asian Communist regimes, in hopes of remaining free after the Second World War.
The US, aligned with the former colonizers, joined the attempts to regain their former colonies, mostly because of the great fear of "COMUNISM"

It is heartening to see the youth of today finding some moral compass and solid ground on which to stand.

Sadly the regime in America still seems to find the wrong way to sort out which is the Moral High Ground.
How quickly we can forget that any government that feels justified in killing Children and Mothers is NOT on that Moral High Ground, and should not be counted among our friends.

Quote:
"Current Issue
Cover of April 2024 Issue
April 2024 Issue
In Los Angeles, police stood by and watched as a group of Israel supporters beat pro-Palestinian demonstrators at UCLA, attacking them with mace and fireworks. Police also used pepper spray on students at the University of South Florida earlier on Tuesday.

While all of this was happening, Israel continued bombing Palestinians up and down the Gaza Strip.

This shock-and-awe campaign was about smashing a rapidly expanding student movement whose bravery has captivated people around the world. It was about eliminating the threat that the pro-Palestine movement poses to business as usual. It was about showing university donors, Republicans, Democrats, and the White House that these schools knew which side they were supposed to be on.

And it was about reminding these students—these kids who had the nerve to sit in tents—of who is in charge and who isn’t. The students at Columbia and City College and UCLA and the University of South Florida and all of the more than 70 Gaza solidarity protests that have emerged at campuses around the country committed the sin of believing that it is acceptable for them to try to influence what happens at their school or—heaven forbid—what happens in the world at large. The hope is that these protesters will learn who the world is really supposed to work for—that there is a sky-high price to be paid for questioning the natural order of things. You can feel the question thrumming through the violence and repression: How dare you?

But here’s the lesson in all this: The people in charge are scared. They are terrified of the power of the movement for Palestine—of its size, moral righteousness, fearlessness, diversity, and love. And they are terrified that one of the key pillars of the American system—support for Israel no matter what it does—is being shaken.

The Nation Weekly
Fridays. A weekly digest of the best of our coverage."
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  #222  
Old 05-02-2024, 10:43 PM
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Default Re: Standing With Israel and Condemning Hamas

The more the left keeps advocating, supporting and funding crazy shit, like what is going on at Columbia— the more middle grounders will shift to the right. So conservatives are sitting back expecting nothing more from the left knowing they are digging their own graves.
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Last edited by Miss Shelby; 05-02-2024 at 10:54 PM.
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  #223  
Old 05-03-2024, 06:29 PM
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Default Re: Standing With Israel and Condemning Hamas

So conservatives are sitting back …
No they’re not. They’re scrabbling around desperately trying to spin peaceful free speech to fit that gas-light narrative you’re touting.
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  #224  
Old 05-03-2024, 06:33 PM
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I read some of your foolish scree, then just skimmed the rest.
 
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Default Re: Standing With Israel and Condemning Hamas

Money and owning the libs convinced conservatives to support Russia, it'd be funny if money and owning the libs got all the anti-globalist nazis to back the State of Israel. They already seem angry dirty liberals are blocking the student's ability to be indoctrinated by the ivory tower leftist universities.
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  #225  
Old 05-03-2024, 06:40 PM
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Default Re: Standing With Israel and Condemning Hamas

Quote:
The more the left keeps advocating, supporting and funding crazy shit, like what is going on at Columbia— the more middle grounders will shift to the right. So conservatives are sitting back expecting nothing more from the left knowing they are digging their own graves.

I’m not going to support Israeli genociding Palestinians because I think it’s a good pr move.

Personally, I refuse to give a shit about the pro-genocide caucus feels.

I’m also not sure that your claims are descriptions of reality or what you hope is true.
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