A Song of Fire and Ice Mafia: Game Thread - Page 14

ravenscape · #**326** 08-26-2008, 03:34 AM

Unvote

going back to read and think.

slimshady2357 · #**327** 08-26-2008, 10:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mickthinks

So there's three possibilities we need to consider:

Scum and Raven both hit wei; too much of a coincidence?
Scum hit Raven still protected by wei.
Scum didn't make an order to hit anyone.

thoughts?

1) although possible, it doesn't account for raven being attacked
2) this seems by far the most likely
3) I can't think of any reason the scum would skip killing someone, it just doesn't make sense.

There really isn't anything new here. From my perspective, I can't see any situation that fits other than mick is the scum left and played one hell of a diversion on days 2 and 3. There is a slight chance that Lees is scum, but I just don't see that happening. For instance, she hasn't been playing, but capp was killed last night and it couldn't have been Sun who sent the order since he was lynched before that.

It looks like our fate rests in your hands raven, I know capp fingering me is a very good reason to vote for me, but something went wrong. You had a bad view and so did capp, the only explanation from my view is that there is a framer in the game.

:shrug:

I don't know what else to say.

ravenscape · #**328** 08-26-2008, 10:27 AM

The thing I'm trying to figure out is your one time kill capability and why you wouldn't have used it last night if you are town.

The Tick · #**329** 08-26-2008, 10:36 AM

eerie windy sounds... booo.... more eerie sounds... tick tack tick...

slimshady2357 · #**330** 08-26-2008, 11:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ravenscape

The thing I'm trying to figure out is your one time kill capability and why you wouldn't have used it last night if you are town.

Who would I have killed? That was the problem I had. At the time I didn't know you had killed wei and that (most likely) the scum had tried to kill you and failed. Now that I know that (or at least, it seems that it's the most likely scenario), there can only be one person left that's scum - mick.

So I wasn't sure that you were who you said you were. But there just doesn't seem to be any other set of events that explains all the facts.

Whoever framed Crumb and me did exceptionally well, it got Crumb lynched and it's likely to do the same to me and be the blow that wins the game for the scum. :sadcheer:

ravenscape · #**331** 08-26-2008, 06:31 PM

It comes down to this: was Capp's read accurate, or was there a block.

My read of Crumb was initially "not evil", and changed only after I commented to bey on Crumb's role name.

So, was there interference after my initial read?

Bey's explanation of the order of operations:

Quote:

Scum's orders resolve first, then seer, doc, vig, independent if the order matters.

If the role blocker is scum and targeted Crumb that night, then my initial read should have been wrong. But, it was correct.

If the role blocker is independent, it makes no sense, because their block would never be in place before the other actions were completed.

I don't see how a role blocker would have been involved in that botched read.

Any thoughts?

ravenscape · #**332** 08-26-2008, 10:50 PM

vote slimshady

I can't come up with a scenaro that makes sense wrt my read of crumb and a framer.

slimshady2357 · #**333** 08-26-2008, 10:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ravenscape

It comes down to this: was Capp's read accurate, or was there a block.

My read of Crumb was initially "not evil", and changed only after I commented to bey on Crumb's role name.

So, was there interference after my initial read?

Bey's explanation of the order of operations:

Quote:

Scum's orders resolve first, then seer, doc, vig, independent if the order matters.

If the role blocker is scum and targeted Crumb that night, then my initial read should have been wrong. But, it was correct.

If the role blocker is independent, it makes no sense, because their block would never be in place before the other actions were completed.

I don't see how a role blocker would have been involved in that botched read.

Any thoughts?

I think the simple explanation is that bey fucked up. He either gave you a response before the framer gave his target (which bey shouldn't have done, naughty naughty if he did) and then had to back-track. Or, he forgot that the framer had targeted Crumb and gave you the correct info by mistake (in which case, OOPS!).

How do you explain the reversal of information from Bey any other way? He must have made some kind of mistake. And why would you get an incorrect read if there wasn't some kind of framer?

slimshady2357 · #**334** 08-26-2008, 10:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ravenscape

vote slimshady

Man, well played mick.

Quote:

I can't come up with a scenaro that makes sense wrt my read of crumb and a framer.

I can't come up with any scenario that DOES make sense of your incorrect read wrt to Crumb that DOESN'T involve a framer. Can you? Seriously, what do you think happened then?

Oh well, I think you can seriously say that whoever did frame Crumb and me won the game for the scum, well done.

ravenscape · #**335** 08-26-2008, 11:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slimshady2357

Quote:

Originally Posted by ravenscape

It comes down to this: was Capp's read accurate, or was there a block.

My read of Crumb was initially "not evil", and changed only after I commented to bey on Crumb's role name.

So, was there interference after my initial read?

Bey's explanation of the order of operations:

Quote:

Scum's orders resolve first, then seer, doc, vig, independent if the order matters.

If the role blocker is scum and targeted Crumb that night, then my initial read should have been wrong. But, it was correct.

If the role blocker is independent, it makes no sense, because their block would never be in place before the other actions were completed.

I don't see how a role blocker would have been involved in that botched read.

Any thoughts?

I think the simple explanation is that bey fucked up. He either gave you a response before the framer gave his target (which bey shouldn't have done, naughty naughty if he did) and then had to back-track. Or, he forgot that the framer had targeted Crumb and gave you the correct info by mistake (in which case, OOPS!).

How do you explain the reversal of information from Bey any other way? He must have made some kind of mistake. And why would you get an incorrect read if there wasn't some kind of framer?

Beats me. I've been through the thread looking at the vote patterns and changes, trying to find hints of who knew what when. Probably more effective to read tea leaves, but it's been a long day 5.

Crumb suspected capp and mickthinks were working together during day 3, and switched his vote from you to mickthinks as a result.

capp and mickthinks were the only two who stuck with Sun Tzu on day 3. You and wei yau switched to Crumb.

We know know that capp was the cop, and that mickthinks was right about Sun Tzu from Day 2 onward. It's not conclusive, but it does suggest that perhaps capp read mickthinks on day 1 and started a cabal.

slimshady2357 · #**336** 08-26-2008, 11:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ravenscape

It's not conclusive, but it does suggest that perhaps capp read mickthinks on day 1 and started a cabal.

I'm not sure what that means. I'm also not sure what else I can say to convince you, except that I'm town and voting for me is handing the town a loss. To mick, to scum, to someone, but definitely a loss.

Good game everyone, I'm off to bed, it's past 11pm here. I won't be back on tonight, so my vote stays on mick.