#1651  
Old 09-16-2020, 10:57 AM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

Yeah, I agree with you and the papers that the simple SIR models overestimate the threshold for herd immunity for a given R0, but I disagree with the papers with the extent to which super spreading will depress the threshold for immunity because I reject their position that super spreading potential isn't primarily situational.

50 percent like in that Nature quote is 20 percent below what a naive estimate would be with an R0 of 3 after all.

I just want to be clear that I don't think the papers are crap, I think their use was though.


I don't think that I disagree with you very much.
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  #1652  
Old 09-16-2020, 11:15 PM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

Our little town is now in lockdown, due to active COVID-19 cases at the school.

Going back to wearing nitrile gloves when filling the car with gas, and going to the post office to get mail.
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  #1653  
Old 09-16-2020, 11:25 PM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

What is it with gloves and COVID 19? I see fewer people wearing them now than a few months ago, but I never understood how gloves are meant to benefit ordinary untrained wearers.

If you're not trained how to put gloves on and off without touching the outside of them, you don't disinfect your hands before and/or after putting the gloves on and off, and you don't dispose of the gloves responsibly or disinfect them after use, do gloves help to prevent the spread of the virus, and if so, how?
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  #1654  
Old 09-17-2020, 12:37 AM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

I glove up one hand to pump gas because gas pumps are completely gross in every way.
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  #1655  
Old 09-17-2020, 12:55 AM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

Quote:
Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
What is it with gloves and COVID 19? I see fewer people wearing them now than a few months ago, but I never understood how gloves are meant to benefit ordinary untrained wearers.

If you're not trained how to put gloves on and off without touching the outside of them, you don't disinfect your hands before and/or after putting the gloves on and off, and you don't dispose of the gloves responsibly or disinfect them after use, do gloves help to prevent the spread of the virus, and if so, how?
The answer to that question you so artfully framed, is basically, no.
BUT!
IF used properly, gloves can reduce the probability of infection both directions. The magic word is "Properly"

Having had two family members in hospitals with MERSA, and the Mrs in quarantine after her heart surgery, I became well-trained in the application of gloves and other PPE.

COVID or otherwise, gloves are only useful if properly applied.
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  #1656  
Old 09-17-2020, 12:57 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChuckF View Post
I glove up one hand to pump gas because gas pumps are completely gross in every way.
Oh, Hell Yeah.
You don't even wanna know where those hands have been before they touch them pumps.
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  #1657  
Old 09-17-2020, 01:05 AM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

Quote:
Originally Posted by ChuckF View Post
I glove up one hand to pump gas because gas pumps are completely gross in every way.
I pick my nose then pump gas.
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Old 09-17-2020, 01:12 AM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

I've been giving myself gasoline enemas to protect against the 'rona.
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  #1659  
Old 09-17-2020, 02:30 AM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

:inflate:
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Old 09-17-2020, 06:22 AM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

See that is why Oregon is OK. Usually can't pump your own gas.

They laughed at us and...


Well pretty much they laugh at us.

But also we're on fire. So there's that.
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  #1661  
Old 09-17-2020, 06:49 AM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

All the best states are on fire.
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  #1662  
Old 09-17-2020, 09:30 AM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

Hi,
In these pandemic situation safety measures is really important for us.Please take proper precaution measurements to save individually and other lives.I'm also looking for some quality safety boxes,then i found this website all Personal Protective Equipments are approved by Health Canada.You also check this out.Its worth it.
Thanks.

Last edited by BrotherMan; 09-17-2020 at 10:07 AM.
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  #1663  
Old 09-17-2020, 09:30 PM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dragar View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by beyelzu View Post
I think if SARS-CoV-2 had strong seasonality we would see it.
It's tough to make inferences in different countries with different demographics, tracking, climates, healthcare systems, responses, etc.

A huge amount of the season component of e.g. influenza is thought to be behavioural. I see no reason why coronaviruses wouldn't be impacted in the same way. So I'd be very surprised if there weren't a large seasonal component.

And yes; I've been long convinced it really is 'just that infectious' and the summer is what 'good' looks like. Winter is going to be really rough.
while what you say is true about comparing different countries. It is hard to not think about Michigan seasonality of Coronaviruses and what that might say about Sweden's recent success. They started getting covid19 under control in June and suppressed through the summer.

They are far north like Michigan.
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  #1664  
Old 09-17-2020, 10:13 PM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

Quote:
Originally Posted by beyelzu View Post
Sweden

They are far north like Michigan.
4fcg0v.jpg
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  #1665  
Old 09-17-2020, 11:01 PM
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Quote:
The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) reportedly suggested the idea in April, proposing five reusable masks be delivered to every residential address and prioritizing areas with the worst coronavirus outbreaks. The Postal Service also prepared a news release saying it would send the first shipments to Louisiana’s Orleans and Jefferson parishes, according to a draft obtained by the Post. Masks would then go to King County, Wash., Wayne County, Mich., and New York.

However, the White House reportedly vetoed the plan, instead creating the Project America Strong initiative. The $675 million initiative has distributed about 600 million masks to vulnerable and critical sectors thus far, according to HHS.

“There was concern from some in the White House Domestic Policy Council and the office of the vice president that households receiving masks might create concern or panic,” an administration official who spoke on condition of anonymity told the Post.
Fuck Trump

back in april when Masks were hard to come by and resistance to them hadn't solidified, the USPS was going to give every household 5 reuseable masks, but fuck that apparently.

also, HHS says they distritbuted masks, when and to whom? they certainly didn't deliver them to every fucking mailbox.

the HIll article draws on reporting from

Newly revealed USPS documents show an agency struggling to manage Trump, Amazon and the pandemic - The Washington Post
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  #1666  
Old 09-20-2020, 11:42 PM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

Quote:
Warm and wet climates appear to reduce the spread of COVID-19 while cold and dry weather conditions seem to facilitate virus transmission, according to a systemic review of multiple studies.

The review looked at 17 studies regarding the effect of temperature and humidity on the seasonal viability and transmission rate of the novel coronavirus.
News article that talks about the paper and background information.


The paper: Effects of temperature and humidity on the spread of COVID-19: A systematic review

Quote:
Considering the existing scientific evidence, warm and wet climates seem to reduce the spread of COVID-19. However, these variables alone could not explain most of the variability in disease transmission. Therefore, the countries most affected by the disease should focus on health policies, even with climates less favorable to the virus. Although the certainty of the evidence generated was classified as low, there was homogeneity between the results reported by the included studies.
so the review finds that SARS-CoV-2 probably does show that seasonality is affecting coronavirus

Quote:
he evaluation of the certainty of the evidence according to GRADE is described in Table 4. The level of certainty of outcomes evaluated in this systematic review–“Association between temperature and spread rate of COVID-19” and “Association between humidity and spread rate of COVID-19”–were classified as “low”. Since the studies are observational and presented a considerable risk of bias in some criteria assessed, the certainty of the evidence several studies did not consider variables such as migration patterns and isolation policies in their results generated received this classification. Moreover, one study did not show a significant effect of the variables under study on the spread of the new coronavirus
grains of salt though.
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Old 09-21-2020, 12:03 AM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu



Slick graphic found here: Weekly Covid-19 News Round-Up, 9.20.20 - The Big Picture

Deaths per million is a good measurement stick I think.
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Old 09-21-2020, 04:11 AM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

Hard to believe this shit has only been going on for about six months
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  #1669  
Old 09-21-2020, 05:02 AM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

Twelve more to go give or take until a shot is widely available. Everyone’s going to get this bug sooner or later. The question seems to me, will it be in an orderly or disorderly fashion?
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  #1670  
Old 09-21-2020, 08:24 PM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

A sequel to Four Weddings and a Funeral now in the time of covid, we have 1 Wedding and 8 Funerals.

Sequels do often have higher body counts, just look at Rambo.

Quote:
The wedding and reception in the Millinocket area on Aug. 7 is linked to more than 270 cases of COVID-19, including in an outbreak at a nursing home in Madison and a jail.
and now 8 deaths

8th death linked to coronavirus outbreak stemming from Maine wedding
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Old 09-22-2020, 07:24 AM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

Thread by @pookleblinky: A man sneer-walks into a place without a mask, ready to make a scene. He gets 5 steps in before several people tackle him to the ground. Glo…
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Old 09-22-2020, 07:34 AM
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Old 09-22-2020, 09:32 PM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

We just went to our local pharmacy for our flu shots. Usually I get mine through an employer health fair where they do all the paperwork for us. I don't know if they are doing it this year, but I haven't heard about it and decided not to wait to find out.

I have fairly good insurance. It is through Cigna. Usually I have a drug co-pay of $10.

And I had to pay for my flu shot. $23. I paid it because I was already there and it's worth not having to go out for one again. But I also make good money and am not going to sweat $23. Not like, say, somebody who doesn't make great money or has kids to think about. Husband has different employer insurance and his was free.

$23 for a critical and basic public health measure that is like, quintuply important this year. What the fuck. We are so fucked this winter.
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Old 09-22-2020, 10:47 PM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

Any science nerds know what's up with a neck gaiter?

Face mask study shows neck gaiter may be worse than no covering at all - The Washington Post

I was planning on using them a lot this winter because winter.
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Old 09-22-2020, 11:25 PM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

I am not a nerd, but the followup article quoted says, among other things, that gaiters are pretty effective if you double them up.
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