#1851  
Old 12-19-2020, 06:41 PM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

It looks like this story hasn't come up here yet, so:

Stanford Apologizes After Vaccine Allocation Leaves Out Nearly All Medical Residents : Coronavirus Updates : NPR

I have just developed an algorithm that says that everyone who got the vaccine already has to show up to work at the hospital now. Those who are qualified work directly with the COVID patients, those who are not work janitorial, food service, laundry, front desk, or wherever else they're needed.
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  #1852  
Old 12-19-2020, 07:47 PM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

Five or so cousins of mine all caught it together. One of them was ill enough to require intensive care, though not ventilation, for a week or so. No one I know here has contracted it. Fingers crossed to keep that score at zero.
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  #1853  
Old 12-19-2020, 10:02 PM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

I know someone who has it and is quarantined, it doesnít sound like theyíre horribly sick, but have lost their sense of smell. Multiple people they know who had it also lost their sense of smell, I donít know how prevalent it is overall but this seems to be a common enough sign for younger people.
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  #1854  
Old 12-20-2020, 12:11 AM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

The closest to my circle(s) is my friend's sister. She's the only one in his family that has it (or, well, is symptomatic).

There have been a number of recent alerts at work but so far as I know it isn't anyone I work directly with. (Thanks to HIPAA, I'm okay that I don't know if it's anyone I know or have had "significant contact" with to be notified that I should be tested.)
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  #1855  
Old 12-20-2020, 12:18 AM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

Quote:
Originally Posted by BrotherMan View Post
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  #1856  
Old 12-21-2020, 10:29 AM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

So... Is 28 Days Later becoming more fact as there is no longer any leaving the UK?
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  #1857  
Old 12-21-2020, 11:01 AM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

28 Months Later perhaps.
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Old 12-21-2020, 07:05 PM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

Kurt Russel in... Escape From UK
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  #1859  
Old 12-21-2020, 07:08 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ari View Post
I know someone who has it and is quarantined, it doesnít sound like theyíre horribly sick, but have lost their sense of smell. Multiple people they know who had it also lost their sense of smell, I donít know how prevalent it is overall but this seems to be a common enough sign for younger people.

I donít remember the stats for sure, but I think lost of smell/taste is a better diagnostic than fever. I think something like over a third of cases reported loss of smell.
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  #1860  
Old 12-21-2020, 07:11 PM
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I never had any taste. :chin:
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  #1861  
Old 12-21-2020, 07:11 PM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

There has been talk of a new variant on England that is more contagious, but as yet there isn’t good peer reviewed data on this.

I’ve read popular press articles with claims of a 60-70 percent increase in R0 which could be really horrific, but the variant arose recently (after September) and I would like to see a study that tries to account for potential seasonality effects.

At this point, I’m skeptical that it’s a new strain as that gets thrown around a lot. They are using bioinformatics to make these arguments. They havent had time to see if the variant is better able to infect cells. Nor have they shown what structural differences the mutations have caused in the virus.




Quote:
However, the UK government's New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group said it had "moderate confidence" that this new variant "demonstrates a substantial increase in transmissibility compared to other variants."
New Coronavirus variant?

It could be serious, and if true this is probably very bad news and may raise R0 high enough that herd immunity could be very difficult.
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Old 12-21-2020, 07:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by beyelzu View Post
There has been talk of a new variant on England that is more contagious, but as yet there isnít good peer reviewed data on this.

Iíve read popular press articles with claims of a 60-70 percent increase in R0 which could be really horrific, but the variant arose recently (after September) and I would like to see a study that tries to account for potential seasonality effects.

At this point, Iím skeptical that itís a new strain as that gets thrown around a lot. They are using bioinformatics to make these arguments. They havent had time to see if the variant is better able to infect cells. Nor have they shown what structural differences the mutations have caused in the virus.




Quote:
However, the UK government's New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group said it had "moderate confidence" that this new variant "demonstrates a substantial increase in transmissibility compared to other variants."
New Coronavirus variant?

It could be serious, and if true this is probably very bad news and may raise R0 high enough that herd immunity could be very difficult.
Initial responses from some virologists I follow is skepticism, but that can always change. Does a higher R0 change the public mitigation efforts, though?
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  #1863  
Old 12-21-2020, 07:42 PM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

Quote:
Originally Posted by beyelzu View Post
At this point, I’m skeptical that it’s a new strain as that gets thrown around a lot. They are using bioinformatics to make these arguments. They havent had time to see if the variant is better able to infect cells. Nor have they shown what structural differences the mutations have caused in the virus.
The BBC's James Gallagher seems to have his eye on the right ball—New Covid strain: How worried should we be? | BBC

From the linkProf Alan McNally, from the University of Birmingham, said: "We know there's a variant, we know nothing about what that means biologically. It is far too early to make any inference on how important this may or may not be."
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  #1864  
Old 12-21-2020, 08:44 PM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

Quote:
Originally Posted by specious_reasons View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by beyelzu View Post
There has been talk of a new variant on England that is more contagious, but as yet there isnít good peer reviewed data on this.

Iíve read popular press articles with claims of a 60-70 percent increase in R0 which could be really horrific, but the variant arose recently (after September) and I would like to see a study that tries to account for potential seasonality effects.

At this point, Iím skeptical that itís a new strain as that gets thrown around a lot. They are using bioinformatics to make these arguments. They havent had time to see if the variant is better able to infect cells. Nor have they shown what structural differences the mutations have caused in the virus.




Quote:
However, the UK government's New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group said it had "moderate confidence" that this new variant "demonstrates a substantial increase in transmissibility compared to other variants."
New Coronavirus variant?

It could be serious, and if true this is probably very bad news and may raise R0 high enough that herd immunity could be very difficult.
Initial responses from some virologists I follow is skepticism, but that can always change. Does a higher R0 change the public mitigation efforts, though?
If it does have a higher R0 by as much as they speculate (Iíve seen 60 to 70 percent) then it would effect mitigation.

I think England got R0 down to .8 during the lockdown, a 60-70 percent increase puts that easily over 1.

But Iím skeptical because I expect seasonal effects to already do that.

Like whatever R0 you achieved when aided by seasonality with a particular set of restrictions, I would expect the same restrictions to not work as well when seasonality is working against us.
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  #1865  
Old 12-23-2020, 11:58 PM
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  #1866  
Old 12-24-2020, 02:26 AM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

Quote:
Originally Posted by beyelzu View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by specious_reasons View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by beyelzu View Post
There has been talk of a new variant on England that is more contagious, but as yet there isnít good peer reviewed data on this.

Iíve read popular press articles with claims of a 60-70 percent increase in R0 which could be really horrific, but the variant arose recently (after September) and I would like to see a study that tries to account for potential seasonality effects.

At this point, Iím skeptical that itís a new strain as that gets thrown around a lot. They are using bioinformatics to make these arguments. They havent had time to see if the variant is better able to infect cells. Nor have they shown what structural differences the mutations have caused in the virus.




Quote:
However, the UK government's New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group said it had "moderate confidence" that this new variant "demonstrates a substantial increase in transmissibility compared to other variants."
New Coronavirus variant?

It could be serious, and if true this is probably very bad news and may raise R0 high enough that herd immunity could be very difficult.
Initial responses from some virologists I follow is skepticism, but that can always change. Does a higher R0 change the public mitigation efforts, though?
If it does have a higher R0 by as much as they speculate (Iíve seen 60 to 70 percent) then it would effect mitigation.

I think England got R0 down to .8 during the lockdown, a 60-70 percent increase puts that easily over 1.

But Iím skeptical because I expect seasonal effects to already do that.

Like whatever R0 you achieved when aided by seasonality with a particular set of restrictions, I would expect the same restrictions to not work as well when seasonality is working against us.
This is generally educational and explains why this scientist is not yet convinced they have proven an increased transmission rate.


His problem seems to be using immunological data to show a biological function, and points out statistical reasons why this variant may look more transmissible when it may not be. (:tealdeer: : the "founder effect" and superspreading events.)
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  #1867  
Old 12-24-2020, 01:14 PM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

This was shared by someone who we shall identify as Roland98, although her real name is Dr Tara C Smith of Kent State University.

Mutant coronavirus in the United Kingdom sets off alarms, but its importance remains unclear | Science | AAAS

The whole article is good, with no specific single quote I want to make.

But a thought:
Quote:
B.1.1.7 has acquired 17 mutations all at once, a feat never seen before. ...

But scientists have never seen the virus acquire more than a dozen mutations seemingly at once. They think it happened during a long infection of a single patient that allowed SARS-CoV-2 to go through an extended period of fast evolution, with multiple variants competing for advantage.
What a surprise that countries who initially claimed herd immunity was the best strategy should end up being incubators for new, more active strains.
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  #1868  
Old 12-25-2020, 05:47 PM
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British Columbia COVID-19 total deaths : doubling days
ProjectionActualDateDays
3+403-12 -
6+803-175
12+1303-225
24+2403-319
48+4804-088
100+10004-2517
200+20208-21149
400+44111-30100
800+80812-2424

Merry Doubling Day!
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Old 12-26-2020, 11:15 AM
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Old 12-26-2020, 05:23 PM
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COVID19 is a seasonal climate-driven disease across both hemispheres | medRxiv

Quote:

The role of climate in the population dynamics of COVID-19 remains poorly understood, and a true seasonal signature has remained elusive. Data from both hemispheres and the second wave provide opportunities to further examine climatic drivers. With a statistical method designed to detect transitory associations, we show consistent negative effects of temperature and absolute humidity at large spatial scales. At finer spatial resolutions we substantiate these connections during the seasonal rise and fall of COVID-19. Strong disease responses are identified between 12-18įC for Temperature and 4-12 g/m3 for Absolute Humidity. These results classify COVID-19 as a seasonal low-temperature infection, and point to the airborne pathway as an important contribution to transmission for SARS-CoV-2, with implications for control measures we discuss.
Preprint
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  #1871  
Old 12-27-2020, 12:10 AM
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Originally Posted by beyelzu View Post
COVID19 is a seasonal climate-driven disease across both hemispheres | medRxiv

Quote:

The role of climate in the population dynamics of COVID-19 remains poorly understood, and a true seasonal signature has remained elusive. Data from both hemispheres and the second wave provide opportunities to further examine climatic drivers. With a statistical method designed to detect transitory associations, we show consistent negative effects of temperature and absolute humidity at large spatial scales. At finer spatial resolutions we substantiate these connections during the seasonal rise and fall of COVID-19. Strong disease responses are identified between 12-18įC for Temperature and 4-12 g/m3 for Absolute Humidity. These results classify COVID-19 as a seasonal low-temperature infection, and point to the airborne pathway as an important contribution to transmission for SARS-CoV-2, with implications for control measures we discuss.
Preprint
Sent that link to a couple smug Australians along with:

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  #1872  
Old 12-27-2020, 02:31 AM
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Worried wealthy discover money can’t buy you Covid vaccine
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Old 12-27-2020, 05:55 AM
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  #1874  
Old 12-27-2020, 09:55 AM
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Does anyone have a good site or person to follow that is looking at excess deaths in the US?

Twice now I've come across people telling me there are less overall deaths this year than normal in the US and that COVID numbers are overinflated because 'normal' deaths are being labelled as COVID.

If anyone already has a good source for what is actually happening on that front, I'd appreciate you sharing it here.

I'll have time to look myself later, but just thought someone here might already have something bookmarked.
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Old 12-27-2020, 01:08 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by slimshady2357 View Post
Does anyone have a good site or person to follow that is looking at excess deaths in the US?
I wish to register my interest in sources of information and/or analysis on this.
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