So, Iran, huh?

[California Tanker]

The catch is that most of the military are also composed of the youth of the country. If it's the youth that's disaffected, there's a greater chance that the security forces might join them than if it were the older lads.

NTM

[ChuckF]

Maybe in the military (but probably not), but not necessarily in the security forces. Anyway, I doubt any of this is very likely.

[Wonderbread Leotard]

Originally Posted by California Tanker

Well, there's always the possibility of an insurrection. If it's the youth of the country, and there are enough of them, could always be enough to merit a fight.

I wonder what Iranian gun laws are like?

NTM

IIRC, no individual right to keep or bear arms is recognized under the Constitution, with unauthorized possession or smuggling punishable by imprisonment and at least theoretically, death in extreme cases. It's still tolerated to an extent for guns to be kept by civilians for hunting, especially in rural areas. But overall, per capita gun ownership is low in Iran, even compared to Canada, let alone the USA.

[chunksmediocrites]

There have been reported disconnects between older generations in Iran and generations that grew up after the Iraq-Iran war and after the Revolution. Add to that the decimation of the older generation in the Iraq-Iran war, and there could be an eventual threat to the theocratic government.

I've read one theory that the theocracy wants a hard-liner to keep tensions up in the old neocon special, 'Outside (Evil) Threats Mean We Must Do What We Are Told (by the Good Government')- and that with Obama dropping most of the saber-rattling, the story line doesn't convince the Persian hearts and minds so well.

I have trouble with that theory, not least because Iran has attempted to normalize diplomatic relations and strike bargains in the past (2003) and because Israel's hawks have not dropped any of their OMG IRANUKEXISTENTIALTHREAT!!!!ONEELEVENTY, nor has the U.S. more than half.

As well, the US is far from butting out of that neighborhood; rather Obama is focusing on Afghanistan and Pakistan for our current war crimes tour, because hey, if there's one place we can make shit pie edible, it is the mountainous regions full of tribal and religious factions that have been fighting wars on their land against foreign invaders for 30 years (this time) and have no economy and/or infrastructure except for the import of weapons, and export of heroin.

But I digress.

I'll be interested to see where this goes in Iran.

[Wonderbread Leotard]

BTW, sexual reassignment surgery is legal in Iran and funded by the government. The story has it that a transsexual actually faced down the Ayatollah in his living room and flashed him injected-hormone-grown boobs. This helped convince him to write a fatwa granting rights to transsexuals. I'm not making this up - Google it if you give a shit.

[livius drusus]

Khamenei orders the Guardian Council to investigate election fraud. A pathetic sop or a sign that he's crapping his pants?

[Watser?]

Defeated Iranian presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi has joined a huge rally against the result of last week's election, defying a government ban.

AFP news agency said Mr Mousavi told a crowd of tens of thousands in Tehran he was ready to take part in a new poll.

BBC NEWS | Middle East | Iran poll loser leads huge rally

Hmm, I hadn't thought they could still pull that off. Also, the violent protests seems to have stopped. This could still get interesting.

[livius drusus]

Sullivan is compiling a Twitter compendium from people at the protests.

[Watser?]

"There has been sporadic shooting out there... I can see people running here," Reuters quoted a reporter of Iran's Press TV as saying from Tehran's Azadi Square.

"A number of people who are armed, I don't know exactly who they are, but they have started to fire on people causing havoc in Azadi Square."

The Associated Press and AFP news agencies reported that their photographers had witnessed security forces opening fire, killing one protester.

BBC NEWS | Middle East | Shots fired at huge Iran protest

[livius drusus]

Excellent Der Spiegel story about Khamenei's governance model and its failure to recognize shifts in Iranian society.

[Watser?]

I just read on a Dutch news site that the shooting started when protesters attacked and set fire to a building used by the Basiji militia. Militia members then opened fire on the crowd.

[Watser?]

Juan Cole:

The problem with shooting protesters in Iran is that there will be a funeral, which will be another occasion for protest; and then a memorial service (more protest) and then a 40-day memorial (more protest). If more protesters are shot at these commemorations of the fallen, there will be memorials and protests around them, too. This thing could grow.

Informed Comment: 100,000 Throng Streets of Tehran, Protester Shot to Death

That's how the 1979 revolution went.

[vremya]

Originally Posted by livius drusus

Sullivan is compiling a Twitter compendium from people at the protests.

Who knew Twitter was good for something other than updates on Ashton Kutcher's whereabouts.

I saw links on Twitter to auto refresh sites for Ahmadinijad's web page, which reminded me of mass fax campaigns when Tiananmen was going down to clog up bureaucrats' fax machines in Bejing.

[Deadlokd]

confirmed - ahmadinejad website hacked off net.

Ahmadinejad called us Dust, we showed him a sandstorm.

Go Iran!

[livius drusus]

Lots of reports of violence overnight. The Guardian Council has agreed to a recount, although given the ballot boxes getting stuffed and disappeared and whatnot, that probably means fuckall. The foreign press has been banned, as in they can't leave their offices. If they're found on the street they will be arrested. Mousavi wants to call off today's protest so it won't clash violently with a planned counterprotest.

[Adam]

The Boston Globe has a gallery of photos from the protests and riots.

[livius drusus]

The counterprotest is going on in central Tehran. Meanwhile, the opposition protestors are streaming to a new demonstration right now in the north part of the city, in front of the state tv headquarters but out of the way of Ahmadinejad's bussed in crowds in Azadi Square. They're trying to avoid face-to-face confrontations with the counterprotesters that Mousavi warned against, I guess.

[Stormlight]

But the opposition alleged widespread irregularities.

The opposition alleged irregularities? And so does the West who would really, really have preferred Mousavi to win? Well, it must be true then.

Seriously, how sure are we before yelling "fraud"?

[Watser?]

I'm not sure Ahmadinejad could not have won.

I very much doubt he could have won by getting 63% of the vote in the first round. I also doubt they could have produced the results so soon.

I am kinda amused by Obama saying there isn't much of a difference between Moussavi and Ahmadinejad. Not that it isn't true, but because it reminds me of 2 other presidents of which you could say the same thing.

[livius drusus]

I don't think you can say the West jumped on the voter fraud bandwagon to get their guy in. The US admin has been deliberately circumspect throughout all of this, and the EU recognized the results right away, although they've drawn back now.

As for the specifics of the vote itself, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Ahmadinejad had won just by a smaller margin. That's what I expected before Friday. However, I think we can say for certain that there have been enough irregularities reported that the result is in question, and a recount isn't likely to produce anything concrete enough at this point to resolve the issue.

[vremya]

Was Ahmadinejad's victory really fraudulent?

Nico Pitney at the Huffington Post (who has probably gotten three hours of sleep in the past week) has a blog entry addressing this.

There are very few people in this world who know for certain whether this election was rigged. I am not one to charge that it was definitively fraud without having facts to prove it.

But what we have is evidence of two key problems: 1) highly improbable outcomes in the alleged vote count, and 2) allegations of fraud from people in the position to know the truth. Let me briefly address both.

[ChuckF]

That raises the question, does it matter whether or not the vote was fraudulent? Or whether Ahmadinejad "really" won? I say that it does not. The challenges to the election result reject the returns, and evidently have sufficient popular legitimacy to be self-sustaining. The widespread perception of fraud is more important than the real numbers, whatever they may be, and that perception will necessarily be the focus of action by the state. The numbers are the numbers, fraudulent or not, and the elections authorities can't change them now.

[livius drusus]

Today's protest:

[Ari]

Election fraud or not, the crackdowns, shootings, banning the foreign press and media fraud are enough to be pissed off about. Acting like a controlling government while claiming you did not control the elections causes problems in itself.

[Watser?]

Turnouts of more than 100% were recorded in at least 30 Iranian towns in last week's disputed presidential election, opposition sources have claimed.

In the most specific allegations of rigging yet to emerge, the centrist Ayandeh website – which stayed neutral during the campaign – reported that 26 provinces across the country showed participation figures so high they were either hitherto unheard of in democratic elections or in excess of the number of registered electors.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009...urnout-figures