#2626  
Old 11-27-2021, 07:21 PM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

Dude, the experts are saying variant of concern.

Yes, they are.
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  #2627  
Old 11-28-2021, 02:40 AM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

55 year legal embargo on the scientific data developed by the vaccine manufactures.

Yea, pretty sure that is not how science works.

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  #2628  
Old 11-28-2021, 01:48 PM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

Counsel: You cried out "fire" in the crowded theatre.
Defendent: Yes, I did.
Counsel: Did you see the fire?
Defendent: No.
Counsel: Did you hear the fire?
Defendent: No.
Counsel: Did you smell the fire?
Defendent: No.
Counsel: So why did you give the alarm?
Defendent: I saw someone taking their seat who looked like they would be able to start a fire at any moment and I surmised ...


Counsel: You cried "fire" because you surmised there was a potential risk?
Defendent: Necessarily we were dealing with limited evidence, so surmising is all we had

(based on a true story)
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  #2629  
Old 11-28-2021, 03:09 PM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

Just had my booster jab: Moderna, (my first two were AstraZeneca). So far, just a tingly arm. :crossed:
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  #2630  
Old 11-28-2021, 04:04 PM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

Quote:
Originally Posted by mickthinks View Post
Counsel: You cried out "fire" in the crowded theatre.
Defendent: Yes, I did.
Counsel: Did you see the fire?
Defendent: No.
Counsel: Did you hear the fire?
Defendent: No.
Counsel: Did you smell the fire?
Defendent: No.
Counsel: So why did you give the alarm?
Defendent: I saw someone taking their seat who looked like they would be able to start a fire at any moment and I surmised ...


Counsel: You cried "fire" because you surmised there was a potential risk?
Defendent: Necessarily we were dealing with limited evidence, so surmising is all we had

(based on a true story)
Yeah, when the facts don't support you, all you can argue is dumbshit analogies that mischaracterize my position (which I remind you is literally the position of the experts.) I didn't make omicron a variant of concern.

But sure, you know better than the experts.

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  #2631  
Old 11-28-2021, 06:46 PM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

Okay, you've shown very clearly that "the Omicron variant is a variant of concern" is a widely held view and has the pharisaic backing of many professors. It's an orthodoxy and I'm a heretic. So burn me!
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  #2632  
Old 11-28-2021, 07:08 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by beyelzu View Post
Yeah, when the facts don't support you, ... But sure, you know better than the experts.
OMG It's as if I never said this:
Quote:
Originally Posted by mickthinks View Post
Obvs it would help me make my case against sensationalising journalism if B.1.1.529 splutters out like a damp squib. If on the other hand (as seems increasingly likely) it explodes like a supernova, my point will get swept away in the storm.
... I could have sworn I had posted something like this:
Quote:
Originally Posted by mickthinks View Post
As I indicated earlier, criticising over-reactions to incomplete data will always look foolish with hindsight if and when more data has emerged and the picture is indeed as bad as the alarmists had prematurely claimed.
... I guess I must have just dreamed it, eh?
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  #2633  
Old 11-28-2021, 07:26 PM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

Quote:
Originally Posted by beyelzu View Post
I didn't make omicron a variant of concern.
Dude, no one had made omicron a variant of concern when I posted this:
Quote:
Originally Posted by mickthinks View Post
What a shamelessly sensationalist headline!
... nor when I said this
Quote:
Originally Posted by mickthinks View Post
They seem to have bent over backwards to say it is just a surmise.
... nor when you said this:
Quote:
Originally Posted by beyelzu View Post
Necessarily this early we are dealing with limited evidence, so surmising is all we have.
However, the WHO has now made omicron a variant of concern and thus the situation has changed. Indeed, were The Guardian today to headline an article on the issue; "Scientists warn of new Covid variant", it wouldn't be alarmist. And today I wouldn't say it was.

But back then things were different weren't they? Now even you and I know more than the experts did back then.
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  #2634  
Old 11-28-2021, 09:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by beyelzu View Post
Naw, it shows that you disingenuously chose an example with no real danger in order to make your point.
There was nothing disingenuous about my choice of analogy. I asked you to consider a warning given in a situation where there might be no danger at all. Your preferred analogy was a situation in which harm had already been done and the danger was established.

I think my scenario matches more closely than yours what we know now of the danger threatened by omicron, let alone what we knew way back on Wednesday.
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  #2635  
Old 11-28-2021, 10:25 PM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

Quote:
Dude, no one had made omicron a variant of concern when I posted this:



Nope, but they had when you posted this.

Quote:
So, it seems currently Omicron meets the criteria for Variant of Interest ... maybe.

Do you now agree it's a variant of concern?
Because if so, I will certainly own that you don't currently disagree with the experts.








Surmising requires limited evidence but it doesn't require no evidence. Surmising just means it can't be confirmed. My initial posts quoted the scientists that explained what evidence they were basing their warning on. Your analogy had no evidence at all for the possibility of fire and that is what made it disingenuous.

Lets go over the timeline, on the 24th the guardians says that scientists warn about the the new variant quoting several scientists who express concern but also that it's early and we have limited evidence, on the 25th, you said "What a shamelessly sensationalist headline!" because of the word warns.

The very next day WHO names it Omicron declaring it a VOC, you respond saying that it sounds like a VOI. WHO lists some of the same evidence that was in that original Guardian article. They didn't get suddenly new evidence in that two days.

You were wrong. Scientists were warning using careful scientist language.




I am done with this. I find your fixed ideas quite tiresome, so welcome to ignore. When you can let this go, I will interact with you again.
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  #2636  
Old 11-29-2021, 03:03 AM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

Party time.
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  #2637  
Old 11-29-2021, 03:12 AM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

Canada clearly failed to implement entirely performative travel bans rapidly enough.
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  #2638  
Old 11-29-2021, 04:00 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChuckF View Post
Canada clearly failed to implement entirely performative travel bans rapidly enough.
That seems to be SOP, these days.
It seems that once the work hit the street, everybody should have hit the lockdown button.

Erk, too late.
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  #2639  
Old 11-29-2021, 06:32 AM
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  #2640  
Old 11-29-2021, 09:34 AM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

It's everywhere.

Six Omicron cases found in Scotland as ministers resist calls for tougher rules | Coronavirus | The Guardian
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  #2641  
Old 11-29-2021, 09:34 AM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

And people are not being responsible.

Dutch police arrest couple trying to flee quarantine for Spain | Netherlands | The Guardian
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  #2642  
Old 11-29-2021, 09:34 AM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

Surprise.
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  #2643  
Old 11-29-2021, 09:42 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeP View Post
Quote:
Woman and man left hotel where they were in quarantine after testing positive for Covid-19
"What they just did was the most insanely idiotic thing I have ever heard. At no time-"
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Old 11-29-2021, 10:43 AM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

Quote:
Originally Posted by beyelzu View Post
Quote:
Dude, no one had made omicron a variant of concern when I posted this:
Nope, but they had when you posted this.

Quote:
So, it seems currently Omicron meets the criteria for Variant of Interest ... maybe.
You are juxtaposing two completely unconnected conversations there, bey, as if you think the second quote somehow vitiated my position in the first. Guess what? It doesn't.

Do you now agree it's a variant of concern?
It's a variant of concern because the body with the power to make that designation has so declared. You know I have no power to overturn the decision so I'm not sure what you want me to say.
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  #2645  
Old 11-29-2021, 10:58 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by beyelzu View Post
Your analogy had no evidence at all for the possibility of fire and that is what made it disingenuous.
But threat of fire was not a part of my "Working for Hillary" illustration which was the example you were denigrating and i was defending here:
Quote:
Originally Posted by mickthinks View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by beyelzu View Post
Naw, it shows that you disingenuously chose an example with no real danger in order to make your point.
I think my scenario matches more closely than yours what we know now of the danger threatened by omicron, let alone what we knew way back on Wednesday.
As for the later analogy I made use of; there is always a possibility of fire in a theatre, just as there is always the possibility of increased transmissibility etc. in a mutation of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein. That is why it is not a disingenuous analogy.
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  #2646  
Old 11-29-2021, 03:11 PM
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Sou had her booster yesterday at 7pm. So far nothing but a mildly sore arm, no other side effects at all. I have mine booked for about 4 weeks from now.
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  #2647  
Old 11-29-2021, 11:53 PM
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  #2648  
Old 11-30-2021, 04:51 PM
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Quote:

Dr. Angelique Coetzee told the BBC that neither she nor her colleagues had admitted anyone who had the strain to the hospital so far. Her patients had experienced extreme fatigue but no loss of taste or smell, which are often telltale symptoms of Covid-19, she said.


This is good preliminary news, but severity of disease isnít the only concern (and these preliminary results have large metaphorical error bars.

Quote:


But they cautioned that there is too little data to draw any conclusions yet. Their bigger concern, they said, is how quickly the omicron variant, with its high number of mutations, might spread and how it will match up against vaccines.

ďI donít think we know anything about the virulence. What weíre worried more about is the transmissibility and the immune-evasion capabilities,Ē said Dr. Amesh Adalja, an infectious disease doctor who is a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.

Omicron may cause milder symptoms. But experts arenít breathing easier yet

The article also mentions that we will likely see more VOCs over time, as viruses continue to mutate.

It seems to me that regardless how this plays out on the world stage, here in the US the biggest threat to public health is GOP/conservative recalcitrance.


I read this Wapo article today.

Red America has seen the highest rates of cases and deaths, and the lowest rate of vaccinations

I found this graph pretty telling



The author ascribed the differences in covid rates to vaccines primarily. This might be true, but those who are vaccinated are almost certainly more likely to not be denialists and utilize other mitigation strategies as well.

Itís not like the covid deniers never vaxxers are pro masking tape or social distancing.

The vaccines do protect against severe disease quite well (but spread less well), and masks and distancing stop spread primarily.

Eventually SARS-CoV-2 will burn through the unvaxxed, but until that occurs they remain incubators for new variants and and are why our daily covid deaths are above 800 a day.


Also, since Iím thinking about it. Going back to that much maligned Ferguson Imperial college modeling. We are at 801k counted dead per worldometers, assuming about a 25 percent undercount as found by various studies, we are now over a million dead.

Quote:

In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf


I donít think they factored vaccines in at all, so itís looking to me like if anything they were a bit optimistic.
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  #2649  
Old 12-01-2021, 05:50 PM
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Wayne County GOP canvasser William Hartmann dies from COVID-19

Quote:
William Hartmann, the Republican member of the Wayne County Board of Canvassers who made national headlines for initially refusing to certify the results of the 2020 presidential election, died Tuesday following a battle with COVID-19.

...

In one Facebook post, Hartmann appeared to question the efficacy of the vaccine. "If the ouchie is so great, why do they have to offer bribes?" he wrote. In others, he referred to COVID-19 as the "wuflu" and suggested that Democrats were using the pandemic "to scare the public."
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  #2650  
Old 12-01-2021, 06:14 PM
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Way to own the libs.
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