Winnie the Flu

[Kamilah Hauptmann]

ETA: Giovanni Toti - Wikipedia President of Liguria

China working on that thing Trump doesn't understand: Soft power:

https://www.facebook.com/giovatoti/p...911066/?type=3

Solidarity, from those you don't expect. Yesterday evening at Fiumicino airport, a team of coronavirus experts and a shipment of aid sent by the Chinese Red Cross landed. In addition to the words of proximity, fans, masks and many other medical devices that our country desperately needs, also arrived from China. Thanks to you, who were the first to deal with the emergency and now that you are winning this battle, you have not hesitated to extend your hand to us. When this is over, we will remember who was there... and who was not. On the contrary. In the meantime, thanks to China, Italy will make it too

Also:

https://www.facebook.com/giovatoti/p...098398/?type=3

America, China... and Europe? Brussels, where are you? Though on second thought, maybe it's better if he doesn't show up. Last time he spoke, we lost 17 billion. As a pro-European, with regret...

[Kamilah Hauptmann]

Spain nationalises private hospitals: Spain has nationalized all of its private hospitals as the country goes into coronavirus lockdown

Italy asks Cuba and Venezuela for medical help. Venezuela and Italy have a long history of friendship. Italien bittet Kuba und Venezuela um medizinische Hilfe wegen Coronavirus | amerika21 (German)

Meanwhile in the UK: The UK Only Realised "In The Last Few Days" That Its Coronavirus Strategy Would "Likely Result In Hundreds of Thousands of Deaths" Bojo go down in history as the deathclown or something.

[Kamilah Hauptmann]

Originally Posted by Ari

Here there’s the silver lining that everyone just went out and did their earthquake preparedness shopping that they keep putting off.

[mickthinks]

Germany COVID-19 total deaths : doubling days
Target	Actual	Date	Days
3	3	03-12	-
6	8	03-13	1
12	13	03-16	3
24	24	03-17	1

[ceptimus]

Spain COVID-19 total deaths : doubling days
Target	Actual	Date	Days
2	2	03-04	-
4+	8	03-06	2
8+	8	03-06	0
16+	17	03-08	2
32+	36	03-10	2
64+	84	03-12	2
128+	133	03-13	1
256+	289	03-15	2
500+	533	03-17	2
1000+

[fragment]

The NZ Govt has decided on a massive economic package. We don't have community transmission yet, but tourism is a massive industry for us and is going to all-but-disappear for a while. So this package is aimed at helping small businesses stay afloat and pay wages and providing improved support to the poorest and the about-to-be unemployed. Also more money for healthcare. The package is worth 4% of GDP and there are more measures to come.

This is the direct opposite of the kind of austerity, monetary policy and tax cut economics we have had for the last 35 years. It shouldn't have required a crisis of this magnitude but it's a relief and will help us get back up once the worst has passed.

[fragment]

Originally Posted by ceptimus

Can I just say that 10^3 approx= 2^10 is my second favourite exponential approximation, after the tempered tuning one (3^12 approx= 2^19)?

[Kamilah Hauptmann]

Who’s going to COVIDCON?

— Dianna Cowern (@thephysicsgirl) March 17, 2020

[BrotherMan]

Confirmed cases doubled here. 16 total as of today. Zero deaths. I don't have visibility to how many tests have been performed.

[SR71]

Originally Posted by Kamilah Hauptmann

ETA: Giovanni Toti - Wikipedia President of Liguria

China working on that thing Trump doesn't understand: Soft power:

https://www.facebook.com/giovatoti/p...911066/?type=3

Also:

https://www.facebook.com/giovatoti/p...098398/?type=3

Point taken on the contrast in grasp of the concept of soft power, very well taken, but fuck the Chinese government. If they had been forthright from the onset it might've broken the first link in a long chain of fuck ups. It pisses me off that the Ali Baba guy is donating test kits to us. I'm all for international cooperation, but at the same time, I'm patriotic enough to dislike playing envy hobo to the undeniably authoritarian Chinese pseudo capitalists.

[Qingdai]

Hello from support from the front line. The Federal government is once again, proving that they thing big government doesn't work, by NOT FUCKING DOING ENOUGH.

States are having to pull through.

STAY AT HOME
WASH YOUR HANDS
AGITATE


Also if you haven't realized it, our health care in the US is fucking broken.

PLUS WTF UK?

[Kamilah Hauptmann]

Caught up with a friend in Manila. Cabin fever is real and she was bouncing off the walls.

[JoeP]

Originally Posted by Qingdai

PLUS WTF UK?

[Stormlight]

203 cases now here this morning and a second person died.

France, Germany and now Belgium closed the borders except for cross-border commuters (which incidentally represent 80% of our health care staff. Yes, that's how many jobs they stole!!).

[Dragar]

I have a *wild* hope.

The first case detected of this was traced as far back as 17 Nov.

The Wuhan lockdown was 23 Jan.

It is not impossible that the virus was wandering around infecting people for many days before detection.

But even between detection and lockdown, we're looking at 70 or more days.

If it doubles every three days, that's 23 doubling times - into the millions. Wuhan's population is 11 million.

Early estimates based on case fatalities were that hundreds of thousands were infected, but we've learned an awful lot more about how many can spread asymptomatically now.

So my desperate hope at this point is that Wuhan's lockdown came high into the peak, and stopped it spreading to the rest of China - but Wuhan itself was already past the peak.

That's my desperate hope anyway. We won't know for quite a while. There is no test for who has antibodies for this, yet. It would change everything if there were.

[slimshady2357]

We can now read the Imperial College report on COVID-19 that led to the extreme measures we've seen in the US this week. Read it; it's terrifying. I'll offer a summary in this thread; please correct me if I've gotten it wrong.https://t.co/AwE2cHIbeJ

— Jeremy C. Young (@jeremycyoung) March 17, 2020

[Qingdai]

Here is something you can do:

Folding@home – Fighting disease with a world wide distributed super computer.

https://boinc.bakerlab.org/?fbclid=I...Q8CtYN70XK1Y9M

[slimshady2357]

UK COVID-19 total deaths : doubling days
Target	Actual	Date	Days
3	3	03-08	-
6+	6	03-10	2
12+	21	03-14	4
24+	35	03-15	1
48+	53	03-16	1
96+	104	03-18	2
200+

From the Guardian UK Live Coronavirus page:

"32 more people die in England, bringing UK death toll to 104
The coronavirus death toll in the UK has reached 104 after NHS England said a further 32 people had died in England after testing positive.

This brings the total number of confirmed reported deaths in England to 99. The patients were aged between 59 and 94 years old and had underlying health conditions."

[Ensign Steve]

Originally Posted by fragment

Can I just say that 10^3 approx= 2^10 is my second favourite exponential approximation

Also 10^6 ~ 2^20 and 10^9 ~ 2^30.

(altho I really hope we don't see numbers like that in the context of this thrad)

[Kamilah Hauptmann]

Originally Posted by Kamilah Hauptmann

This story from Italy is quite remarkable if true "Italian hospital saves Covid-19 patients lives by 3D printing valves for reanimation devices — The supply chain was broken, people and 3D printing rose to the occasion" https://t.co/Q5SfXxbrkm

— The Restart Project (@RestartProject) March 15, 2020

(Tweet replaced with a good link)

Special kind of motherfucker:

Medical company threatens to sue volunteers that 3D-printed valves for life-saving coronavirus treatments - The Verge

[lisarea]

I'm expecting to see quite a few inspiring, heartfelt TV commercials from that medical equipment manufacturer before long.

[ceptimus]

American COVID-19 deaths are still doubling slightly slower than most European countries. Time will tell if this is just a temporary statistical glitch.

USA COVID-19 total deaths : doubling days
Target	Actual	Date	Days
15	15	03-06	-
30+	30	03-10	4
60+	60	03-15	5
120+	124	03-18	3
240+

[Miisa]

My chart also puts the US a few days ahead of Italy's stats on the progress of contagions, but a couple of days behind on the deaths. Time will, indeed, tell.

[JoeP]

A few days ago:



Oh good, it's flattening out. We are getting this under control.

Coronavirus Death Toll and Trends - Worldometer



Oh ... only China has got this under control (and to some extent S Korea). No other country even looks like it's reached the inflection point of the logistic growth curve.

In deaths at least - Italy and Spain are starting to look possibly linear in active cases.

[ceptimus]

I think any country hitting an inflection point in the curve during the next few weeks will be the result of improved containment measures rather than the purely mathematical reason a classic logistic curve does - which is when you begin to run out of fresh people to infect. I think that even though the true numbers of cases are much higher than the reported (known) numbers, we're still nowhere near the level that will cause the doubling rate to slow without enhanced containment.

The news in the UK is that many ignorant and selfish people are continuing to congregate in bars, restaurants, and gyms - they think the "no socializing" advice doesn't apply to them. We now need measures to force bars, gyms, and similar places to close - and we need police or army on the streets enforcing curfews. Without these measures, the NHS will be overwhelmed two or three weeks from now. Unfortunately there won't be any screening to identify the morons that were in the pubs and gyms - and put them at the back of the queue for medical treatment.

I was pleased to see that the Iranian cleric who advised fearing God rather than the virus, and bragged that he was drinking holy water as a cure, is now, a week later, dead from COVID-19. I hope, but don't expect, that his case is being widely reported to devout Muslims - and indeed to other fundamental religious types - these are some of the super-spreaders who are recklessly endangering all of us through their ignorance and stupidity.