Sadly I think it's probable that Bush's intellectual simplicity and stubborn complacency are part of his appeal to the apparently quite large "unsophisticated" demographic. And I don't mean that to sound condescending, either. I just think a very large number of Americans are no more interested in or knowledgeable about political complexities than I was a few months ago, which wasn't much.
As I said on Nirvana's blog the other day Bush is definitive, meaning he has no problem at all making bold, unwavering statements on issues he seems to have no real understanding of, much less interest in. And I think it's probable that a lot of people who don't know the details of the issues themselves confuse this false bravado with genuine assurance of the rightness of his actions.
I won't be at all surprised if he's re-elected, but then again I saw the Terminator sweep California* and the very knowledgeable, intelligent Peter Camejo get 3% of the vote. So it'd be pretty hard to surprise me.
*Yeah okay so I reuse the example a lot. I told you I'm new at this. 