Putin is an idiot

[TomJoe]

http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/asiapc...eut/index.html

"You must never push one of the participants in talks into a corner and place it in a situation from which it can find no way out other than boosting tension," he said answering questions on live television.

Hey asshole, isn't that what North Korea did by testing their nuke?

[ChuckF]

Originally Posted by TomJoe

Hey asshole, isn't that what North Korea did by testing their nuke?

Yes, but there are larger politics at play here. For years Moscow has used the multilateral talks with Korea to amplify Russian influence in East Asia. Solving the Korean peninsula standoff would be a boon to Russian power in the region. Moscow is in a pretty good position to serve as broker - it's abandoned its earlier cozy relations with Pyongyang, and doesn't have much of a vested interest. China is (or at least was) North Korea's reluctant sponsor, Japan is hated by the North Koreans as an imperialist menace, as is the United States. South Korea has its own dog in the reunification talks. That leaves Russia as a diplomatic mediator. To assume too threatening a stance against Pyongyang could compromise that position, which is why defense minister Ivanov has pushed that sanctions should not be of indefinite duration and that they should certainly not include any implicit or explicit suggestions of military action.

Putin's comment reflects a concerted effort by the Kremlin to re-establish Russia as a major power and end the unipolar hegemony of the US. Careful to avoid outright confrontation, the foreign ministry has engaged in some very skillful diplomacy to consolidate Russia's position as a strong ally or diplomatic foe. So I imagine Washington does think that Putin is an "asshole" over that remark. That's exactly what he wanted.

[Sock Puppet]

And actually, considering that North Korea is possibly the most paranoid nation on the planet, I thought the whole "Axis of Evil" bluster was a diplomatically stupid maneuver, long before the current nuclear test issue.

[Dingfod]

Originally Posted by TomJoe

http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/asiapc...eut/index.html

"You must never push one of the participants in talks into a corner and place it in a situation from which it can find no way out other than boosting tension," he said answering questions on live television.

Hey asshole, isn't that what North Korea did by testing their nuke?

Why did they test their nuke? To back everyone else into a corner or because they felt backed into a corner? I think there's a valid argument on both sides of that question.

[TomJoe]

Originally Posted by Dingfod

To back everyone else into a corner or because they felt backed into a corner?

They were warned that if they tested the nuke, they'd face sanctions. They tested anyways. In essence, they called the UN's hand ... now the question is ... was the UN bluffing? If so, the UN is, IMO, worthless.

[Dingfod]

NK called the US's bluff too.

[Clutch Munny]

If only there'd been a presidential candidate who thought that Iraq was a distraction from the badly under-emphasized danger that NK's pursuit of nuclear weapons constituted.

If there had been, I bet the media would be making a big deal about how these events vindicated his perspective and impugned their own punditry at the time.

[TomJoe]

Originally Posted by Dingfod

NK called the US's bluff too.

Were we bluffing?

If so, we may as well send them a couple of long range nukes.

[TomJoe]

PS: Thanks for the perspective on Russia ChuckF.

[Dingfod]

Originally Posted by TomJoe

Were we bluffing?

I believe so. As long NK has potential to launch nukes into Seoul or Tokyo, we're not going to do anything to them militarily. Without China's help, no economic sanctions are going to make things any worse than they already are in NK.

If so, we may as well send them a couple of long range nukes.

If you mean blow some up there, we're not going to do that either. Any threat to do so is empty. The potential repercussions are just too great.

[ChuckF]

Originally Posted by Dingfod

If you mean blow some up there, we're not going to do that either. Any threat to do so is empty. The potential repercussions are just too great.

Yes. US policy in Korea has been to avoid a shooting war at all costs. The "Axis of Evil" blather was for domestic consumption as part of the Iraq war-mongering.

As for why NK tested their nuke...I've not yet seen a convincing analysis and I'm not competent enough to make my own. There's so much about North Korean politics that we don't know - i.e. the condition of the regime - that I don't even know if such an analysis could be made, at least not on an unclassified level. I don't think there's a bluff/counterbluff dynamic. However, I think there is a strong case to be made that the regime is simply batshit insane. It's very hard to understand why they would do something so offensive to China and drive Beijing towards the west.

[ChuckF]

Originally Posted by TomJoe

They were warned that if they tested the nuke, they'd face sanctions. They tested anyways. In essence, they called the UN's hand ... now the question is ... was the UN bluffing? If so, the UN is, IMO, worthless.

Either that, or they didn't give a shit about the UN's hand. The North Korean regime has over a million troops along the 38th parallel. They had a major famine in the 1990s, and still rely on food aid (albeit reduced). This has not led to a single reform. China and South Korea, which together comprise half of North Korean food aid, have already reduced aid levels dramatically. South Korea stopped shipments after missile tests.

Kim is not afraid of sanctions, period. China still wants North Korea's mineral wealth, and the South will continue to try to build business links on the assumption that the more they invest now, the cheaper the post-reunifications construction will be. What can the UN do? Pyongyang doesn't care if people starve, as long as the army is fed. In this case (and others), the "threat" of UN sanctions is a joke. The security council can barely agree on a resolution for takeout, and they have no leverage in dealing with such a rabidly paranoid Pyongyang.

[Sauron]

http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/asiapc...eut/index.html

"You must never push one of the participants in talks into a corner and place it in a situation from which it can find no way out other than boosting tension," he said answering questions on live television.

Right.

So like yeah, like how's that advice in your Chechnya policy working out for ya?

You post-communist pretender to absolute czarist power, you?

[Watser?]

Originally Posted by Sauron

http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/asiapc...eut/index.html

Right.

So like yeah, like how's that advice in your Chechnya policy working out for ya?

You post-communist pretender to absolute czarist power, you?

Yeah, that is what I was thinking of right away too (but I thought I'd not derail the thread for a change )

[Dingfod]

Originally Posted by ChuckF

I don't think there's a bluff/counterbluff dynamic. However, I think there is a strong case to be made that the regime is simply batshit insane. It's very hard to understand why they would do something so offensive to China and drive Beijing towards the west.

Oh, I think Bush's saber-rattling has everything to do with why they feel the need for such weaponry. "Somebody set us up the bomb, Bush reave us arone." And he will, unless he's as batshit crazy as Kim Jong Il.

[wei yau]

I have some kind of specific dyslexia with this thread, I keep reading it as "TomPutin is an idiot".

[TomJoe]

Originally Posted by wei yau

I have some kind of specific dyslexia with this thread, I keep reading it as "TomPutin is an idiot".

My last name isn't Putin. It's Stalin, bub.

[ChuckF]

Originally Posted by Dingfod

Oh, I think Bush's saber-rattling has everything to do with why they feel the need for such weaponry. "Somebody set us up the bomb, Bush reave us arone." And he will, unless he's as batshit crazy as Kim Jong Il.

Still not sure I buy it. The administration's bellicosity certainly hasn't helped, but I don't see a causal relationship. Kim Jong Il's regime has faced, since day one, a crisis of legitimacy. Since daddy died, sonnyboy (I'm talking about Kim Jong Il, not Shrub) lacks the Weberian sources of legitimacy: charisma, law, or tradition. Kim Il Sung had revolutionary charisma going for him. Kim Jong Il does not. It's always much harder for second generation revolutionaries to keep that going.

When a regime faces such a crisis of legitimacy (cf Stalin), it turns inward and relies on a highly developed state security apparatus to maintain power. It also actively seeks enemies abroad to legitimize its military posturing. Kim Jong Il has wanted nukes for a long time, and Kim Il Sung probably wanted them as soon as it became clear the USSR would be reluctant intercede for them. As for China though...why alienate the closest thing you've got to an ally...I'm missing something.

[TomJoe]

Originally Posted by Dingfod

If you mean blow some up there, we're not going to do that either. Any threat to do so is empty. The potential repercussions are just too great.

No, I meant give them long range nuculur (as Bush would say it) capability.