Uh Oh - what's up with the Saudis?

[Sauron]

This just in:

Saudi Ambassador Abruptly Resigns, Leaves Washington

By Robin Wright
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, December 12, 2006; Page A23

Prince Turki al-Faisal, Saudi Arabia's ambassador to the United States, flew out of Washington yesterday after informing Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and his staff that he would be leaving the post after only 15 months on the job, according to U.S. officials and foreign envoys. There has been no formal announcement from the kingdom.

The abrupt departure is particularly striking because his predecessor, Prince Bandar bin Sultan, spent 22 years on the job. The Saudi ambassador is one of the most influential diplomatic positions in Washington and is arguably the most important overseas post for the oil-rich desert kingdom.

Change of power?

Saudi officials have not commented on Saud's condition, but he has suffered from tremors for years. Last year, he slipped in the shower and fractured a shoulder. After attending the opening of the U.N. General Assembly in September, he flew to Los Angeles for surgery and quietly remained in the United States until shortly before Thanksgiving, according to an Arab official.

As Saud's health has declined, Turki has increasingly been rumored as a possible replacement for his older brother. He would symbolize continuity in Saudi foreign policy at a moment of tension over Iraq between Riyadh and Washington, two long-standing allies in forging common political and economic policy in the Middle East. King Abdullah summoned Vice President Cheney after Thanksgiving for talks on Iraq and other Middle East flashpoints.

[trientalis]

There's more discussion of this and related matters in a post on Moon of Alabama.

Did Bin Ladin come home to rule?

Briefly, due to this sudden resignation and a few other events mentioned in the post, there is suspicion of a rift between the US and Saudi Arabia and concern that something rather nasty may be in the works. Perhaps I'm being an alarmist but, ignorant as I am, when I heard about the Saudi clerics call for Sunni mobilization against the Shiites, I thought to myself, "Now that can't be good."

So does anyone have any wisdom or comfort (or both) to offer? Is something serious happening or am I just being a nervous nelly?

[ChuckF]

And there's also this:

Saudi Arabia has told the Bush administration that it might provide financial backing to Iraqi Sunnis in any war against Iraq’s Shiites if the United States pulls its troops out of Iraq, according to American and Arab diplomats.

An Iraqi civil war between Iran-backed Shi'ites and Saudi-backed Sunnis.

[erimir]

Originally Posted by ChuckF

An Iraqi civil war between Iran-backed Shi'ites and Saudi-backed Sunnis.

Pshaw, and people try to act like the invasion of Iraq was and is a bad thing?!?

[Watser?]

Juan Cole is looking at the big picture. We are seeing a new lining up of political battle lines in the whole Middle East, with both Iran and Saudi Arabia meddling in Iraq, Hizbullah and the US/Israel trying to force their will onto Lebanon, reports in the Israeli press of an impending war with Syria and/or Iran and that Syria is deploying new missiles and anti-tank weapons in the Golan Heights and the Palestinian power struggle where the latest developments are that the PM visited Iran and an escalation of violence with a mysterious and vicious attack in the Gaza Strip.

Meanwhile, a de facto Israeli-Saudi alliance appears to be building against Iran and the Shiites. Israeli Defense Minister Amir Peretz is now saying that the 2002 Beirut peace plan put forward by then crown prince--now King--Abdullah of Saudi Arabia must be the basis for going forward with an Arab-Israeli peace process. Abdullah got the Arab League to offer Israel full recognition and political and economic relations if only they'd go back to the 1967 borders and recognize a Palestinian state.

At the time, then prime minister Ariel Sharon dismissed Abdullah's plan rather rudely. But now Israel has been bloodied by a Lebanon war that it lost on points to Hizbullah despite its clear military superiority. Bashar al-Asad of Syria pointed out that every generation of Arabs hates the Israelis more than its predecessors. Iran is emerging as a new hegemon in the eastern stretches of the Middle East.

Bush and Israeli Prime Minister Olmert hoped that the Lebanon War of last August would finish off Hizbullah. Instead, Hizbullah put up a respectable resistance to the Israeli military. Now, Hizbullah and its Christian allies loyal to Michel Aoun have staged enormous daily protests aimed at bringing down the reform government of Fuad Seniora, and they may even succeed. Hizbullah is allied with Syria, which is allied with Iran.

While Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel are unified states in this new alliance, their de facto allies in Lebanon and Iraq include the bloc of Saad al-Hariri in the Lebanese parliament and the Kurds and Sunni Arabs in Iraq.

Iran gets support from Syria and Shiite Iraq and from Hizbullah in Lebanon.

Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh went to Tehran recently and got pledges of $120 mn. in aid. Haniyeh while there pledged never to recognize Israel. Iran has Shiite clients in Iraq now, and is reaching into the Levant with its patronage for Hizbullah and Hamas.

Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and (de facto) the 14 March Bloc in Lebanon are ranged against Iran, Shiite Iraq, Syria, Hizbullah and Hamas. Neither Israel nor Saudi Arabia can openly admit to the tacit alliance for fear of anger from their own publics because of objectionable parties to it. But this is how things are shaking out.

Oh...

Here is another happy thought

Now the Saudis are openly saying that this new Cold War in the region could turn hot. If you don't own a bicycle, I'd buy one, because a regional war of the sort Saudi Arabia said it feared would potentially cut off 20 percent of the world's petroleum.

[California Tanker]

Oh well, it's not as if a change of command in the US doesn't result in a call-back and replacement of half the US's ambassadors in other countries.

NTM

[Clutch Munny]

Originally Posted by ChuckF

An Iraqi civil war between Iran-backed Shi'ites and Saudi-backed Sunnis.

Completely unforeseeable. Clearly an implementation issue. Still a good idea to invade.