LotR Mafia - Game Thread

[beyelzu]

Originally Posted by fragment

What are the chances that Kael is actually a Nazgul and this is a weird gambit? I have trouble seeing what he could be trying to achieve with that, though.

I believe him but I have thought he was a traitor for awhile, he could be lying hoping that we let him live because of the victory condition thing I outlined in my last post. He could have made up his claim thinking that some of us, such as myself, would push to let him live. He also set this up somewhat with his, "what good would it do to lynch me if I am a traitor" post.

[slimshady2357]

So far I'm 2 for 2 on reads. Demi isn't Nazgul and Crumb was Nazgul.

I don't see any reason to doubt my read last night. Sure, it could be wrong. But even then we're lynching the traitor, not a bad thing.

If we don't lynch Kael, then who do we lynch? I'm sure as hell looking at Gonzo right now. Wtf Gonzo? I've given 2 good reads, got a scum lynched out of one of them and you're willing to vote for me because Kael says he is Saruman? That looks scummy as hell.

[slimshady2357]

Oh, I also meant to say that not one of you bastards has said a thing about Nightson dying.

[slimshady2357]

Originally Posted by Chris Porter

I've been missing because I took a road trip to New York for my niece's wedding. I'm back now.

I've already outed myself, I can do no more than that. I'm a hobbit, and I'm OK. I sleep all night and I eat all day. I cut down orcs, I smoke my pipe, I dress in plain clothing. On most days, I go shopping, and have buttered scones for tea.

Um, great. Thanks for declaring that again.

Any ideas about the rest of the game? Do you feel like actually contributing anything?

[slimshady2357]

Originally Posted by beyelzu

and though he cleared me, no idea why he did that, vote kael

He hasn't 'cleared' you because he's admitted his views are fucked up. So viewing you as not-scum means squat really.

Originally Posted by Kael

On that note I should say I don't actually know anything about slim. His view, or claimed view, of Crumb certainly seemed on the mark, but his view of me is not. That's all I know right now. Should I survive I will certainly give him a look with my Palantir, but as I've said I know they are not trustworthy devices.

Your entire bogus claim is about trying to cast doubt on the views from the palantir. Sorry mate, 2 for 2 so far and no reason to think I'm not 3 for 3.

Originally Posted by Gonzo

So you are more inclined to believe slim is recieving false read and not lying?

Why the hell would I validate Demi and get crumb lynched if I was just lying about my views?

[fragment]

Originally Posted by slimshady2357

Oh, I also meant to say that not one of you bastards has said a thing about Nightson dying.

What's there to say? It has the look of a vig kill, but speculating about that doesn't seem particularly helpful to town unless we're going to massclaim, an idea which I'm still not especially keen on.

[fragment]

By the way, Kael is on 4 votes (slim, me, Deadlokd, bey), which is L-1. Let's not hammer him yet.

[slimshady2357]

Originally Posted by fragment

What's there to say? It has the look of a vig kill, but speculating about that doesn't seem particularly helpful to town unless we're going to massclaim, an idea which I'm still not especially keen on.

We're too far into the game to be worried about revealing info with speculation and/or a mass claim. If some of the numbers you were throwing out there are correct we're damn close to being not able to win.

And the scum have more info than us already.

However, I don't think we should be doing anything until Demi gets back. She may have some very important info for us. It's getting to the point that we need to know what she did with the ring on Night 2 and possibly even last night. We're slowly narrowing down the possibilities of who is who and her info could swing us to the point of being able to win.

unvote

I don't want someone (scum) to hammer early. Kael at L-2 now.

[fragment]

Originally Posted by slimshady2357

We're too far into the game to be worried about revealing info with speculation and/or a mass claim.

I still disagree. How many hobbits there still are and who they are is crucial information that the nazgul don't have. At this point, they don't know if they're better off taking you out or trying to take out a hobbit. At the very least we have a good lynch lined up for today and should leave risking giving away too much info for the next day.

[slimshady2357]

Originally Posted by fragment

At the very least we have a good lynch lined up for today and should leave risking giving away too much info for the next day.

I can agree with that.

Still hoping our mayor will be back soon to at least see what has happened and give her opinions.

[Deadlokd]

I had an exam this afternoon, hence my absence.

unvote

Not because I believe Kael, I just think he's more useful alive for a while and if two scum come in and hammer him it's going to be a fucked night.

So we had two deaths last night. I do find that interesting. So we have a scum kill, I assume that was BroMan, makes the most sense. And we have a dead Nightson. Totally looks like a vigilante. Nice work... Legolas? That'd be my guess. Legolas, the Elf, skulking around at night, arrow nocked.........TWACK! Nightson falls over, little Hobbity hands scrabbling futilely at the arrow as his life's blood flows into the ground. And the last thing he hears is Orlando Bloom saying "Fuck!"

Anyway, I hope you have better aim tonight.

On a side note, it's nice to see Gonzo back to normal. Here, have a vote.

vote Gonzo.

[Deadlokd]

Oh yeah, and really wanting to hear from Demi.

[fragment]

Actually slim, there is one piece of speculation that is on order for today. Since there's a fair chance you'll be killed tonight, and you're judgement has proved pretty good so far, I'd appreciate it if you can post some analysis & suspicions before the day is up.

I guess that has the risk of indicating who you might investigate if there really is some kind of framer/view-changer out there, but I trust you can do it in such a way as to minimise the risk if you think it advisable.

[fragment]

Originally Posted by Deadlokd

Oh yeah, and really wanting to hear from Demi.

Away for a week, she said. I think that brings her back on Thursday or Friday.

[Deadlokd]

Okay, that's still well within the deadline.

[fragment]

Originally Posted by slimshady2357

He hasn't 'cleared' you because he's admitted his views are fucked up. So viewing you as not-scum means squat really.

Actually, not necessarily. Assuming Kael is telling the truth (a fairly large if), then the only known false palantir reads are of BrotherMan and Kael, both of whom were read as Nazgul. This is consistent with the Nazgul having only a framing power - they can make an innocent appear guilty, but can't make the guilty appear innocent. It's a fairly speculative possibility, but it fits the facts. I think we can consider bey as being perhaps a little more cleared than anyone who hasn't passed a view.

Here's an interesting point: if we lynch Kael, presumably Demi gets the palantir. That leaves us with two palantirs in our possession overnight, and (assuming one of lasts night's kills was a vig) the Nazgul can only kill one of those people. That gives us another view.

Although maybe only some people can use the palantir. Still, its an intriguing possibility.

[Gonzo]

DL I didn't mean to waste your time. I'm not accusing anyone i just don't know shit about LoTR folklore. Don't take it too seriously. (and holy shit I thought I would get through this game without getting voted for once) It was mostly ignorance and lazy reading as i've been all over the place the last few days.

[fragment]

Originally Posted by Deadlokd

Totally looks like a vigilante. Nice work...

Nice work?

[Deadlokd]

Sarcasm. I use it sometimes remember?

[Deadlokd]

Hence this line later:

Anyway, I hope you have better aim tonight.

I was originally feeling pissed about it, but it's done and we can't undo it. So all we can do is hope they pick better tonight. I'm also guessing they weren't sure enough on other nights so they did nothing. That was good work.

[Deadlokd]

Originally Posted by Gonzo

DL I didn't mean to waste your time. I'm not accusing anyone i just don't know shit about LoTR folklore. Don't take it too seriously. (and holy shit I thought I would get through this game without getting voted for once) It was mostly ignorance and lazy reading as i've been all over the place the last few days.

Alright. unvote.

Chris Porter or Sock Puppet?

1. livius drusus
2. Crumb
3. Sock Puppet
4. slim -- Gandalf
5. wei yau
6. Nightson
7. beyelzu
8. fragment
9. Kael -- Nazgul
10. Deadlokd
11. Demi -- not Nazgul
12. Gonzo
13. Megatron
14. Chris Porter
15. BrotherMan

A quick muse on numbers. Nine left.

One dead Nazgul, three dead Hobbits, one dead Aragorn, one dead Gollum. We don't have that many roles left, Legolas and Gimli. At least two Nazgul left and a claimed Saruman. Which leaves four freaking Hobbits. Shit damn.

Here's a point, what if Demi passed the ring to slim or Kael and it's been fucking views up?

[Deadlokd]

Bloody strikethroughs didn't transfer with a cut and paste.

[fragment]

Originally Posted by Deadlokd

One dead Nazgul, three dead Hobbits, one dead Aragorn, one dead Gollum. We don't have that many roles left, Legolas and Gimli. At least two Nazgul left and a claimed Saruman. Which leaves four freaking Hobbits. Shit damn.

You need to include Gandalf, and I wouldn't rule out Boromir.

Here's a point, what if Demi passed the ring to slim or Kael and it's been fucking views up?

I doubt it's good news if the ring ends up in the hands of a non-hobbit. I'm assuming Demi will reveal if whoever she passed it to turns out not to be a hobbit. Or is night-killed.

[Deadlokd]

Okay, so we could have as few as two Hobbits left. With this many specials how the hell did we get so many Hobbits dead?

[Sock Puppet]

Damn. Looks like we had an eventful weekend. I think it's likely that slim is 100% accurate. Demi is, in my mind, entirely cleared by her actions. She pulled us off Brothagorn after viewing him, and even the way she did it, trying to be cagey about his role while insisting he wasn't Nazgul, was pure town play. So slim is definitely 2 for 2 good reads. If Kael is really Saruman/traitor, obviously that's one partially off read, but I really wonder if Kael isn't trying a bizarre safeclaim. It's fraught with danger for him, but still has some advantages.

After all, Crumb made a fairly lame claim, and he got our protector to out himself. Kael's is way more nuanced and interesting, which while that makes it more believable, it also makes it more distracting and confusing. I'm not certain he's Nazgul, but I'm not willing to discount the possibility just because he has claimed traitor.

I agree that the Nighthobbit kill was probably a pro-Shire vigilante, who was convinced NS was evil. I doubt the Nazgul get more than one kill, and the Brothagorn kill was obviously to their best advantage. They can kill at will now unless we stop them.

As far as my other suspects, it's still difficult to get anything out of Chris Porter, but other than her relative silence I still don't have anything substantial to suspect her for. I'm getting more suspicious of Gonzo now, so while we figure out whether lynching Kael is the best move or not, I'd like to get more out of Gonzo. vote: Gonzo